Oliver’s Insights: worries about sharemarket volatility


This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the recent volatility and correction in share markets.

The key points are as follows:

  • After strong gains shares were due for a correction. Worries about the Fed, Japan, China and the growth outlook in Australia have provided the trigger. 
  • However, with Fed tightening fears overdone, the US economy on a sounder footing, Japan looking stronger, China likely to grow around 7.5% and the Australian economy to benefit from low interest rates and a lower $A, a re-run of the 15 to 20% falls seen around mid 2010 and mid 2011 are unlikely.
  • Our cyclical view for shares remains positive, with further gains likely this year. We remain of the view that by year end the ASX 200 will end around 5250.

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