Oliver’s Insights: worries about sharemarket volatility

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the recent volatility and correction in share markets. The key points are as follows: After strong gains shares were due for a correction. Worries about the Fed, Japan, China and the growth outlook in Australia have provided the trigger.  However, with Fed tightening fears overdone, the US economy on a

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Oliver’s Insights: Risk on, risk off

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the phenomenon of “risk on/risk off” that has seen listed growth assets like shares, corporate debt, commodity prices and the Australian dollar move together. The key points are as follows: The “risk on/risk off” pattern that has prevailed in investment markets since the global financial crisis (GFC) is

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Oliver’s Insights – Australian budget 2013

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The attached edition of Oliver’s Insights takes a look at the Australian Government’s 2013-14 Budget. The key points are as follows: The positives in the Budget are more for education, disability care & roads and savings in middle class welfare. However, the deficit is far worse than expected, with a surplus pushed out at least

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Oliver’s Insights: Investment Imperatives

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights takes a break from the usual soap opera of issues surrounding investment markets (US growth, Cyprus, Japanese reflation, Chinese growth disappointments, the collapse in gold, etc) and takes a look at critical investment market realities and the keys to successful investing. The key points are as follows: Four investment market

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Oliver’s Insights – China worries return, but how serious are they?

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The attached edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the outlook for the Chinese economy and share market. The key points are as follows: China’s worries are overblown. Property tightening is likely to remain highly targeted and unlikely to threaten overall growth with aggressive monetary tightening unlikely. On the other hand, reflecting a desire for more sustainable growth

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Oliver’s Insights – Money printing and hyperinflation

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the risks associated with quantitative easing, or money printing, in particular the threat of hyperinflation that many seem to be fearing. The key points are as follows: Concerns that quantitative easing will end in hyperinflation and economic mayhem are way overblown. Constrained demand for credit along with significant

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Australian profits, growth, interest rates and shares

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the outlook for Australian shares and interest rates given the just concluded profit reporting season and the December quarter national accounts. The key points are as follows: The December half profit reporting season was far better than feared and big cost controls have helped lay the ground work for stronger

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A new secular bull market in shares is close

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The attached edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the prospects for a new long term or secular bull market in shares. The key points are as follows: After being in a long term, or secular, bear market since March 2000 that has resulted in very poor returns for investors, global shares led by the US

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The Italian election and European risk

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the implications of the Italian parliamentary elections. The key points are as follows: An inconclusive election in Italy, which has put a cloud over whether it will continue with economic reforms, has seen the return of worries regarding the Euro-zone. Uncertainty is likely to linger for several weeks,

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Oliver’s Insights – What’s the chance of a bond crash?

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the outlook for government bonds and specifically the risk of a 1994 style bond crash. The key points are as follows: Sovereign bonds have had a great run, but with yields near record lows and global growth improving this is unlikely to continue. A 1994 style bond crash

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