Singapore gasoline prices hit 18-year low – wholesale petrol prices fall to 16-year lows

Weekly petrol prices

• Petrol prices: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol fell by 3.5 cents to a 13-month low of 127.6 cents a litre last week. The metropolitan price fell by 3.4 cents to 126.8 cents a litre and the regional price was down 3.8 cents to 129.1 cents a litre.
• Wholesale prices: Last week the national average wholesale unleaded petrol price (Terminal Gate Price, TGP) was down by 10.7 cents last week to 92.2 cents per litre. Today, the average unleaded TGP stands at a 16-year low of 87.9 cents a litre.
• Fuel prices to fall: The Singapore benchmark gasoline price – the largest component of fuel prices paid by motorists – hit 18-year lows of US$21.70 a barrel last week. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by 26.2 per cent last week to $36.71 a barrel or 23.09 cents.

Movements in the petrol price can affect consumer spending, and in turn, prospects for retailers

What does it all mean?

• Good news for Aussie workers on the coronavirus frontline. Our brave doctors, nurses, paramedics, police officers, school teachers, pharmacists, supermarket workers, posties, delivery, public transport and garbage truck drivers will all benefit from cheaper petrol prices as they commute to work.
• This morning the US Nymex (WTI) crude oil price fell to 17-year lows at US$19.92 a barrel in trading as the coronavirus crisis roiled global oil markets. In recent days, Aussie wholesale unleaded petrol prices have hit 16-year lows and regional gasoline prices have plunged to 18-year lows. Given that movements in international benchmark gasoline prices have the biggest influence on Aussie retail unleaded pump prices, it appears likely that $1 a litre petrol will become the ‘new normal’ across East Coast capital cities within the next fortnight.
• Today in Sydney’s west, pump prices are as low as 87.9 cents a litre in Fairfield, according to MotorMouth. In Melbourne, petrol stations in Footscray and Laverton are selling unleaded fuel at 111.9 cents a litre. While in Brisbane, the lowest pump price cited on Monday was 113.7 cents a litre in Wilston. And notably, in Adelaide pump prices are averaging just 90.7 cents a litre today.
• Pump prices are also falling in the smaller and less competitive capital city fuel markets of Canberra, Perth, Darwin and Hobart. In fact average pump prices are near 4-year lows at 101.5 cents a litre in Perth. And prices at the bowser as low as 94.9 cents a litre along the Great Eastern Highway near Perth Airport.
• Oil prices declined for a fifth consecutive week. Global oil demand – estimated by Bloomberg to be running 20-25 million barrels a day below supply – has weakened due to the coronavirus crisis impact on household and business consumption. And crude supply has surged due to the ongoing Russia-Saudi Arabia rift amid a battle for increased market share. Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Mr. Pavel Sorokin said current crude oil prices were “unpleasant” but not a catastrophe.
• Last week the Brent crude oil fell by US$2.05 a barrel or 7.6 per cent to US$24.93 a barrel and the Nymex price was down US$1.02 or 4.5 per cent to US$21.51 a barrel. The Singapore benchmark gasoline price – the largest component of fuel prices paid by Australian motorists – hit 18-year lows of US$21.70 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by 26.2 per cent to $36.71 a barrel or 23.09 cents a litre over the week.

What do the figures show?

Petrol prices

• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol fell by 3.5 cents to a 13-month low of 127.6 cents a litre last week. The metropolitan price fell by 3.4 cents to 126.8 cents a litre and the regional price was down 3.8 cents to 129.1 cents a litre.
• Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down 9.2 cents to 129.3 c/l), Melbourne (up by 5.1 cents to 131.7 c/l), Brisbane (down by 1.1 cents to 135.8 c/l), Adelaide (down by 11.1 cents to 95.9 c/l), Perth (down by 8.4 cents to 114.5 c/l), Darwin (down by 1.8 cents to 130.0 c/l), Canberra (down by 3.8 cents to 136.5 c/l) and Hobart (down by 6.3 cents to 144.2 c/l).
• The smoothed gross retail margin (2-month rolling average) for unleaded petrol rose from 15.59 cents a litre to a record high of 18.63 cents (24-month average: 13.3 cents a litre).
• The national average diesel petrol price fell by 3.3 cents to 137.3 cents a litre over the past week. The metropolitan price fell by 3.2 cents to 135.9 cents a litre and the regional price was also down by 3.2 cents to 138.5 cents a litre.
• Last week the national average wholesale (terminal gate, TGP) unleaded petrol price was down by 10.7 cents last week to 92.2 cents per litre. Today, the average unleaded TGP stands at a 16-year low of 87.9 cents a litre. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 106.1 cents a litre, little changed over the past week.
• MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for unleaded fuel in capital cities today: Sydney 121.3c; Melbourne 131.5c; Brisbane 125.1c; Adelaide 90.9c; Perth 101.5c; Canberra 134.2c; Darwin 129.5c; Hobart 140.4c.
• The key Singapore gasoline price closed last week at US$22.40 a barrel, down US$6.70 or 23.0 per cent on the week. On March 25, the Singapore gasoline price hit 18-year lows of US$21.70 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $13.01 or 26.2 per cent to $36.71 a barrel or 23.09 cents a litre.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• Global oil markets are in disarray. A sharp fall in demand due to coronavirus shutdowns of businesses, as well as social distancing and self-isolation measures by governments, and travel bans have all reduced consumption of oil by around 25 per cent according to Bloomberg estimates. That leaves the world awash with fuel given the increase in production by some of the world’s largest producers due to an ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In fact, crude oil prices are on track to post the worst quarterly performance on record in the March quarter.
• While it’s debatable whether most Aussie drivers are benefitting from the slump in pump prices due to restrictions on “non-essential” travel, at least our hard-working essential services workers have one less thing to worry about as they nurse the nation back to health.
• The monthly spending on petrol by Aussie households – currently at $204.16 – is the lowest in 13 months. But consumers should be aware that retailers are still making decent margins in this volatile period for oil markets with the trend gross retail margin (retail less wholesale prices) hitting a record high of 18.63 cents last week with East Coast prices remaining well above depressed wholesale prices.