Mano Mohankumar
A healthy result on the horizon for CY25 despite the noise
Super funds advanced for the seventh consecutive month in October with the median growth fund (61 to 80% in growth assets) returning 1.2% over the month. While we’ve seen some share market jitters in November so far, Chant West estimates that with only 6 weeks of CY25 remaining, the median growth fund return is still sitting at a solid 7.8%.
Chant West Head of Superannuation Investment Research, Mano Mohankumar, says that a final result near 7.8% would be a good outcome, particularly given the uncertain economic and geopolitical backdrop throughout the year. “That return is well ahead of the typical long-term return objective which translates to about 6%. Super fund members should also remember that this year’s result follows two exceptional years, with returns of 9.9% in CY23 and 11.4% in CY24. Given the strength of share markets over the past three years, super fund members in higher risk portfolios have fared even better.
“The healthy October return was driven by strong developed international share markets which rose 2.6% and 3.3% in hedged and unhedged terms, respectively. Markets were buoyed by easing of trade tensions during the month, strong corporate earnings and optimism around AI. Emerging markets shares performed even better, returning an impressive 5.5%. Back at home, Australian shares yielded a small positive return of 0.4%. Over the same period, Australian and international bonds gained 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively.”
The table below compares the median performance to the end of October 2025 for each of the traditional diversified risk categories in Chant West’s Super Fund Performance Survey, ranging from All Growth to Conservative. All risk categories have generally met their typical long-term return objectives, which generally range from CPI + 1.5% for Conservative funds to CPI + 4.25% for All Growth.
Long-term performance remains above target
MySuper products have been operating for nearly 12 years, so when considering performance, Mohankumar says it’s important to remember that super is a much longer-term proposition.
“Since the introduction of compulsory super in July 1992, the median growth fund has returned 8% p.a. The annual CPI increase over the same period is 2.7%, giving a real return of 5.3% p.a. – well above the typical 3.5% target. Even looking at the past 20 years, which includes three major share market downturns – the GFC in 2007-2009, COVID-19 in 2020, and the high inflation and rising interest rates in 2022 – super funds have returned 7.1% p.a., which is still comfortably ahead of the typical objective.”
The chart below shows that for most of the time, the median growth fund has exceeded its return objective over rolling 10-year periods, which is a commonly used timeframe consistent with the long-term focus of super. The exceptions are two periods between mid-2008 and late-2017, when it fell behind. This is because of the devastating impact of the 16-month GFC period (end-October 2007 to end-February 2009) during which growth funds lost about 26% on average.
By Mano Mohankumar, Senior Investment Research Manager
