Hugh Selby-Smith
From how AI is already shaping businesses and markets via data centres and drug trials, to precious metals, defence spending and demographics around the world, Talaria Co-CIO Hugh Selby-Smith outlines how the 10 stats below are impacting our society and why they matter for the future.
1.
Source: Counterpoint Global
2.
Michael J. Mauboussin, MS
3.
Microsoft down ~2.0% past 12 months to Feb 16, despite the S&P500 (of which it is a significant part) being up ~12%. Even the best companies with track records of good ROI from capex spend are subject to market concerns.
4.
AI-designed drugs are whizzing through the preclinical phase (before human trials begin) in only 12-18 months, compared with three to five years previously. A study published in 2024, of their performance in such trials, found an 80-90% success rate. This compares with historical averages of 40-65%. That, in turn, boosts the overall rate of getting drugs successfully through the entire pipeline to 9-18%, up from 5-10%. The average cost of developing a successful new drug is $2.8bn, so AI has the potential to cut that cost in half.
The Economist
5.
Above-ground silver inventories stood at about 19 bln oz in 2024. Bullion inventories (bars and coins) total roughly 7.4 blnoz, including 1.4 bln oz held in London vaults and Comex warehouses—equivalent to annual silver demand of 1–1.2 bln oz. By comparison, copper inventories covered only 50 days of demand in 2024, while gold has decades’ worth of above-ground stocks. Like gold, silver has a significant amount of above-the-ground inventories/stocks, measured in years instead of days. Contrast this to copper, where we only have ~50 days of inventory in 2024.
Source: World Gold Council, Silver Institute, S&P Global, Wood Mac, Bernstein analysis
6.
US defence spending is the second highest per capita in the world and totals close to US$1 trillion annually. Unlike spending on Veterans’ Affairs, which is mandatory, the defence budget is classified as discretionary spending. As US federal debt has grown, interest payments have taken up an increasingly large share of the budget. This has reduced fiscal flexibility, as mandatory programs (such as Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans’ benefits) together with rising interest costs now dominate federal outlays.
Adding to this pressure, defence spending continues to increase. As a result, the pool of truly discretionary funding is shrinking. For context, annual interest payments on public debt are now roughly US$1 trillion, while total corporate tax revenue is approximately US$452 billion — highlighting the scale of the fiscal constraint.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget
7.
For the first time since 1996, foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries (U.S. debt) in their reserves, marking a historic turning point in global reserve management.
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/liberty-eroding-gold-rising-30-years-of-warning/#:~:text=In%20dollar%20value%2C%20the%20world’s,cause%2C%20of%20gold’s%20price%20rise.
8.
In the last 15 years the share of US consumer spending accounted for by over 55’s has increased from less than 30% to over 45%. This is due in part to demographics, in part to the story of wealth and income distribution and in a small part to life-cycle dynamics.
Axios
9.
Japan has the oldest population among major economies, with 30% of its population aged 65 and older. China has the world’s largest senior population, with over 211 million people aged 65+. India has more than 100 million seniors, despite having one of the youngest populations among major economies. As the biggest economies age, they put more pressure on government spending and productivity.
IMF, UN
10.
More young Americans are living with parents than ever before. According to data from the US Census, 54% of women between 18 and 24 years old live at home, compared to 46% in 2003. For men, this figure is 58% today vs. 55% in 2003. This upwards trend in adults living at home with parents is also seen in the 25-34 year old age group too. 11% of women between 25 and 30 year olds live at home, compared to 7% in 2003. For men, this figure is 19% today vs. 14% in 2003. The cost of living continues to be a factor despite interest rates coming down in most developed countries, with a lack of housing being a major factor as populations grow.
US Census Bureau
