The centre of global economic activity has seen a clear shift away from Developed Markets and towards Emerging Markets since the turn of the century. China has been at the heart of this. However, the traditional drivers of growth that have propelled Emerging Markets to this prominence are becoming unsustainable. The next stage of growth... Read more continue reading
15
Sep
2015
China’s efforts to stem the market crash have had limited success so far. In our view, attempts to boost domestic demand via the policy banks will only help prevent further economic damage, while a rebound in exports is also unlikely. However, we believe a nascent recovery in the housing market could provide a more effective... Read more continue reading
10
Sep
2015
Recent events in China have sent tremors across global equity markets. Understanding the sources of these tremors and their interplay with our twin themes of secular stagnation and contagion will have important investment implications. This white paper is co-authored by three of Epoch Investment Partners, Inc’s most senior investment people – William Priest, CEO and... Read more continue reading
08
Sep
2015
China’s decision earlier this month to change the way in which the central parity or “fix” rate of the renminbi (RMB) is determined has been widely characterised as a devaluation designed to shore up the country’s export trade. We question this assessment, for a number of reasons. In our view, the move is much better... Read more continue reading
03
Sep
2015
In last week’s “Macro Matters,” I argued that China’s currency regime change is bad news for the global economy and risk assets unless it will be accompanied by further domestic monetary easing and reforms in China and unless central banks elsewhere smell the coffee and ease policy further or postpone tightening. My point was that... Read more continue reading
28
Aug
2015
China’s surprise currency devaluation, which triggered a sell-off in many Asian currencies, has increased Malaysia’s headache as the country had already been struggling to halt the ringgit’s decline. Reintroducing capital controls to support the currency—as some in the market expect—would be counterproductive, but we believe that investors should be vigilant about such a tail risk.... Read more continue reading
27
Aug
2015
The market will calm down after the biggest currency devaluation by China in almost two decades which has sent shock waves through global commodity, interest rate and stock markets, says George Lucas, managing director Instreet Investment. “The 3 per cent drop in the currency last week is relatively small for a developing country trying to... Read more continue reading
19
Aug
2015
China’s surprise currency devaluation sparked a debate on whether it was part of the country’s ongoing financial reform or a measure to boost flagging exports. The plot thickens, as the flexibility now given to the currency is, ironically, forcing the authorities to step up their intervention, at least for now. It will take some time... Read more continue reading
18
Aug
2015
Small cap stocks in Asia present a real and often untapped opportunity for Australian investors, says Paul Quah, head of research (Asia) at Acorn Capital. “Many of the obstacles that investors believe stop them from investing in Asia are easy to overcome and, in our view, the opportunities that await them there are definitely worth... Read more continue reading
14
Aug
2015
Even before the correction in China’s A-Shares market, a number of investors expressed to us scepticism about our positive outlook for the renminbi (RMB). Some even saw devaluation as a possibility. For a variety of reasons, we continue to see the currency appreciating. In the aftermath of China’s A-Shares correction, many investors may be more... Read more continue reading
31
Jul
2015
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