Bubble trouble – the next global asset bubble

Key points Asset bubbles are a fact of life and flow from human nature which has a strong tendency to jump on to popular fads. There is a long history of new bubbles forming from the ashes of the last burst bubble – and this time around is unlikely to be any different. Easy global […]

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Healthy trade; petrol prices to creep higher

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International trade; Job advertisements; Petrol price The trade surplus widened in August. The trade surplus rose by $603 million to $2,346 million. Exports fell by 2.4 per cent while imports fell by 5.1 per cent. Petrol prices are set to rise – but modestly. Terminal gate or wholesale petrol prices hit fresh 11-month lows last […]

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Good inflation data to cheer Reserve Bank

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Inflation gauge The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose by just 0.05 per cent in September – the lowest increase in 11 months – after lifting 0.2 per cent in August and 0.1 per cent in July. Importantly other underlying rates of inflation were also benign in September. The trimmed mean was unchanged for […]

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Housing slowdown may delay rate hike

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Trends in housing The release of the building approvals and home price data is an opportune time to focus on the latest trends in the housing market. Dwelling approvals, new home sales and home prices all fell again in the latest month, raising hopes that the Reserve Bank will delay any rate hike for at […]

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Investor Signposts: Week Beginning October 3 2010

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The big picture Next week the Reserve Bank is widely expected to lift interest rates. Interestingly if you go back just over a fortnight ago no major forecaster was expecting a rate increase in October, believing that the Reserve Bank would want to see the September quarter inflation figures first (released October 27). But that […]

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Weekly market and economic update – 01 October 2010

Headline developments of the past week Concerns about problems in Europe returned to the fore over the last week with Moody’s downgrading Spain’s credit rating, ongoing issues regarding Irish banks, more pressure on bond yields in peripheral countries and protests about fiscal cutbacks. This all weighed on European share markets. US Federal Reserve officials painted […]

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Manufacturing contracts to nine-month lows

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Performance of Manufacturing The Performance of Manufacturing index fell by 4.4 points in September to a nine-month low of 47.3.  Any reading below 50 means the manufacturing sector is contracting. Of more concern, the production sub-index fell to a nine-month low, employment is now at 11 month lows and new orders have slumped to 14 […]

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The return outlook for unlisted commercial property

Key points Unlisted commercial property prices have started to grind higher after a 20% slump through 2008 and 2009. Expect a continuing but gradual recovery in returns going forward on the back of attractive yields and constrained office supply, but only modest growth in space demand reflecting the somewhat mixed nature of the economic recovery. […]

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Weak data raises doubts about imminent rate hike

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Latest economic data The outlook for home builders remains sluggish. New dwelling approvals fell for the fourth time in the past five months – down by 4.7 per cent in August. Lending barely grew last month. Private sector credit rose by only 0.1 per cent in August – marking the slowest growth in nine months. […]

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Home prices fall again in August

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House Prices The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Australian Home Value Index – the largest property database in Australia – reported that home prices fell by 0.2 per cent seasonally adjusted terms in August. House prices outside capital cities were unchanged in the month. Capital city home prices are up 8.0 per cent on a year ago […]

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