US January consumer price index. Not there yet. Not even close?

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January’s US consumer price index (CPI) is a reminder that the challenges around the “last mile” in returning inflation to target are daunting. I suspect that the Federal Reserve (Fed)... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 9 February, 2024

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Investment markets and key developments Global share markets rose over the last week. US shares rose to new record high supported by ongoing confidence in a “goldilocks” landing for the... Read more continue reading

Interest rate cuts to support infrastructure assets in 2024

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Central bank interest rate cuts are a tailwind for infrastructure assets, especially parts of the utility sector which has been hard hit by the sharp rise in interest rates, according... Read more continue reading

Five problems with the Australian tax system – and the changes to Stage 3

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Key points The Australian Government’s changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts have refocussed attention on the need for tax reform. The Australian tax system has five key problems: it’s... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending February, 2023

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Investment markets and key developments Share markets mostly rose over the last week helped by good economic data, solid US earnings results and ongoing signs that central banks are moving... Read more continue reading

Phlegmatic Fed

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As was widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) opted to eschew any adjustment in the policy rate at the conclusion of its meeting on... Read more continue reading

Australian December retail sales much weaker than expected after Black Friday boost was reversed.

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Key points Australia monthly retail turnover declined 2.7% in December, more than reversing the 1.6% rise in November. The fall was concentrated in discretionary spending items more than reversing their... Read more continue reading

CommSec State of the States – January 2024

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Overall results How are Australia’s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out which state or territory is Australia’s economic leader. Now in its 15th year, the... Read more continue reading

Pamplona in the bond market as it anticipates aggressive central bank policy rate reductions

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Running with the bulls can be exhilarating and, in an investment sense, frequently rewarding. The rally in bond markets from late October into year-end provided that exhilaration and reward for... Read more continue reading

Falling inflation – what does it mean for investors?

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Key points Inflation is in retreat thanks to improved supply and cooling demand. A further fall is likely this year. Australian inflation remains relatively high – but this mainly reflects... Read more continue reading