CBA/CommSec Economics: Update – Unemployment rate ticks back up to 3.7%

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Labour force – October 2023 The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in October, reversing the dip down in September. Employment rose by 55k in October, driven by a 37.9k... Read more continue reading

It’s been another year of living dangerously – will 2024 be naughty or nice?

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As we approach the tail end of 2023 and the onset of the festive season, it’s customary to embrace a period of reflection.  What went well, what did not work... Read more continue reading

US October consumer price index: risk of policy rate hike recedes…but are markets getting ahead of themselves in pricing multiple easing’s?

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A slightly better than expected core consumer price index (CPI) inflation result for October suggests that the Fed tightening cycle is likely in abeyance – probably indefinitely. The Federal Reserve (Fed)... Read more continue reading

Indicators pointing to a global recession in 2024

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“Across the inflation metrics and indicators that we monitor, in particular, the core PCE indicator, we’re looking at inflation being a little stickier than what we would have liked, although... Read more continue reading

Where to for US bond yields?

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The last few months have been characterised by high levels of volatility in the US bond market. Longer tenor bond yields have risen sharply this year with the 10-year yield... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 3 November, 2023

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Investment markets and key developments Most global share markets rebounded over the last week from oversold levels on the back of increasing optimism that the Fed has finished raising rates,... Read more continue reading

RBA: a view from the hawk’s nest

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At the time of the release of the September quarter consumer price index (CPI), I suggested that an annual increase of 5.2 per cent in the annual trimmed-mean (TM) inflation... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 27 October, 2023

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Investment markets and key developments US shares fell again over the last week on the back of ongoing worries about high bond yields, the war in Israel and some mixed... Read more continue reading

CommSec State of the States – October 2023

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Overall results How are Australia’s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out which state or territory is Australia’s economic leader. Now in its 15th year, the... Read more continue reading

September quarter consumer price index: the RBA to reveal hawk talons

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An annual increase of 5.2 per cent in the annual trimmed-mean (TM) inflation rate makes a policy rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday, 7 November... Read more continue reading