CPD: The challenges for global growth equities

From

Global markets have entered a difficult period as fundamentals turn and inflation has emerged, somewhat more strongly than expected. As global economies faced a myriad of difficulties over the past couple of years, governments responded by supporting their economies through these crises with large amounts of debt. That, in turn, has meant the equilibrium level

continue reading

FOMC reinforces the aggressive message, increases the policy rate by 75bps

From

Aggressive 75bp increase in the policy rate; Aggression reinforced through ‘dot plot’ In a clear signal of its determination to vanquish inflation the Federal Reserve’s FOMC increased rates by 75bps to 1.75%. The move comes after Fed Chair Powell pushed back on 75 bp increments in his previous post-FOMC press conference. However, in the wake

continue reading

RBA policy rate response: are markets pricing “too much” or “too little”? 

From

In what was somewhat of a surprise, the RBA joined a number of other developed country central banks in announcing a 50 bp policy rate increase at the conclusion of Tuesday’s RBA Board meeting. In admitting my surprise, I am not being critical of the RBA action. More to the contrary I think it was

continue reading

RBA and the ‘stitch in time saves nine’ approach to monetary policy

From

 The outcome of today’s RBA meeting is a difficult one to call. According to the 22 economists polled by Bloomberg, eight expect a 25 bp increase, eleven expect 40 bps and three expect 50 bps. I think it is a fine judgement but I expect only a 25 bp increase. That conjecture is based on

continue reading

The Fed and the ECB: A tale of two central banks

From

I have described the task facing the Fed and ECB is akin to a circus high wire act: charting a path between getting inflation back toward target without tipping the economy into recession. The Fed, however, is doing so with a balancing pole and with eyes wide open.  The ECB on the other hand is attempting

continue reading

CPD: The time is nigh for impact investing

From

As the world grasps the reality that our modes of production and consumption threaten our ability to prosper and even exist, the momentum to implement solutions has never before been higher. This article from GSFM’s investment partner Redpoint Investment Management explores the investment thesis for impact investing. Current means of global production and consumption are

continue reading

Federal Open Markets Committee, European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of New Zealand movements

From

Federal Open Markets Committee minutes underscore The US Federal Reserve’s aggression Prior to the release overnight of the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes there had been some market commentary that US 10-year yields may have seen a cyclical peak and that attendant upon that the USD might also have seen a cyclical

continue reading

Fed, RBA and BoE face challenges

From

Summary Powell comments reinforce Fed’s aggressive stance. Markets roiled. Volatility to continue Wage Price Index Price Index eases pressure on the RBA. Focus switches to today’s April labour force data and March quarter national accounts A difficult time for the Bank of England. Strong labour market data and strong inflation data. BoE appears to prevaricate

continue reading

Central bank conundrum

From

Summary US April CPI: Still a high wire act for the US Federal Reserve (the Fed). A higher than expected CPI keeps maximum pressure on the Fed. Real interest rates (including the policy rate) remain low and are expected to remain so even after aggressive Fed action this year. The Fed remains engaged in that most difficult

continue reading

Australian CPI: RBA to hike in May and June

From

The March quarter consumer price index (CPI) presents the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board with a clear and present challenge when it meets next Tuesday. To recap, the six-month annualised inflation rate as measured by the RBA’s favoured trimmed mean measure is 4.9 per cent. That is the highest on record since this data

continue reading