RBA meeting: calmer waters or the eye of the storm?

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not adjust the policy rate when it meets on Tuesday. The data flow since the August meeting has consistently surprised on the downside... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 1 September, 2023

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Investment markets and key developments Global share markets rose further over the last week helped by US data showing a softening jobs market and continuing moderation in underlying inflation in... Read more continue reading

Jackson Hole: Ain’t no cure for the summertime (bond yield) blues!

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With a sparse event calendar this week, the focus of markets will be on the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. The theme of this year’s conference is Structural... Read more continue reading

China’s slowdown & structural challenges & the implications for Australia

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Key points China’s economy is slowing not helped by a property collapse and longer-term structural constraints around poor demographics and threats to productivity growth. China needs to save less and... Read more continue reading

A short and shallow recession

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The global economic landscape faces challenges heading into the second half of 2023. With Europe weakening, China disappointing, and the U.S. approaching recession, markets are becoming more volatile, and seizing... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 18 August, 2023

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Investment markets and key developments Global share markets fell over the last week on the back of concerns about more central bank rate hikes, ongoing upwards pressure on bond yields... Read more continue reading

Wage Price Index and RBA minutes and UK CPI suggests no relief for the Bank of England

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Wage Price Index and RBA minutes: hard to see a September or October hike…but come November? Last week I noted that the release of the July NAB Monthly Business Survey... Read more continue reading

Why the need to lift productivity – and why it might be hard

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Key points The last 20 years have seen a slump in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to less than 1% pa. This has curtailed growth in living... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 11 August, 2023

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Investment markets and key developments Global shares were mixed over the last week. US shares fell on the back of higher energy prices and ongoing upwards pressure on bond yields... Read more continue reading

US July CPI enough for an indefinite abeyance and the Fair Work Commission pokes the inflation bear

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US July CPI: enough for an indefinite abeyance but a policy rate “plateau” not a “peak” The July consumer price index (CPI) report reaffirms the message from the previous two... Read more continue reading