‘Noughties’ over; ‘Teens’ begins

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Look back at 2010. Look ahead at 2011. Contrary to the expectations of the gloom and doomsters, 2010 turned out to be a positive year. The global economy expanded by around 4.5 per cent, the world didn’t slip into recession and global sharemarkets generally rose. Sure, the year wasn’t without its problems. Investors fretted about

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Threadneedle’s outlook and investment themes for 2011

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Reasonable global growth led by emerging economies, but markets remain fragile and shocks will trigger volatility Mark Burgess, incoming Chief Investment Officer at Threadneedle, looks ahead to 2011: “Our central case for 2011 is one of reasonable global growth led by emerging markets. Against this backdrop world equity markets look good value, particularly against government

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Greece, Ireland, etc…the ongoing European debt debacle

Key points While Ireland has now been granted financial assistance from the IMF and European Union, concerns remain regarding Portugal and Spain. Spain is a bigger risk as it is nearly 12% of the euro area economy and European banks have a higher exposure to it. While its small savings banks are a risk, fortunately

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Weekly market & economic update: 5 November 2010

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Headline developments of the past week The contrast in global central banks was stark over the past week with those in weak countries such as the US, Japan and Europe leaving monetary conditions very easy and in the US actually easing further via more quantitative easing, whereas those in strong countries such as India and

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$A parity – is it sustainable & what is the impact?

Key points For the first time in 28 years the $A has spiked above parity against the $US, highlighting the culmination of a long hard slog back to form for the Australian economy. In a longer term context it is the last 28 years below parity which is the aberration. While the $A is vulnerable

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Budget outcome: Better than expected… again

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Federal budget update The Federal Budget deficit stood at $54.8 billion in 2009/10 (4.2 per cent of GDP), an improvement of $2.3 billion on the estimate made just four months ago at the time of the May budget. GST receipts hit record highs in 2009/10, up 9.2 per cent on a year ago. The budget

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Weekly market & economic update

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Headline developments of the past week While the risk of a double dip back into recession may be waning, the prospect of sub-par growth in key developed countries suggests that another round of global reflation looks to be on the way, via more quantitative easing (or QE2), with both the US Federal Reserve and the

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Global Reflation Mark II, gold and the Australian dollar

Key points The sub-par recovery in the US, Japan and Europe and constrained fiscal policy most likely means that we will see another round of global policy reflation, centred on quantitative easing (or printing money). This will be bad news for G3 currencies, but good news for Asian currencies and gold. And it will likely

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Investor Signposts: Week Beginning September 19

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Upcoming economic and financial market events Australia September 20    Reserve Bank Governor speech    Foodbowl Unlimited Forum Luncheon in Shepparton September 21    RBA Board minutes (September 7)    Minutes of the last board meeting September 21    ABARE commodity forecasts      ABARE’s ‘Australian Commodities’ publication September 24    Financial accounts (September quarter)    Includes data on household financial wealth Overseas September

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Lessons for US shares today from Aust in the early 1990s

Key points Shares normally go through a tough patch in the second year following a bear market low. This can reflect worries about monetary policy tightening or worries about a double dip back into recession. This is certainly the case in the US this year and has affected most global share markets. The US today

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