Petrol prices
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Petrol prices down but are expected to rise.
Petrol prices: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 4.5 cents a litre to 149.2 c/l in the week to August 25.
- CommSec expects fuel prices to lift by 1-2 cents a litre in the next fortnight.
What does it all mean?
- The national average petrol price recorded a sizeable 4.5 cent fall over the past week, and it was largely driven by two factors – the vagaries of the discounting cycle and the fact that pump prices were playing catch up with the fall in regional oil prices over the past month.
- Motorists need to pay attention to the discounting cycle, as it certainly makes a big difference to the size of the fuel bill. Across capital cities on the Eastern seaboard pump prices hit the low point in the discounting cycle, over the past few days, resulting in average petrol prices in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne falling between 8-9 cents a litre. In fact with the shopper-dockets petrol was available at below the wholesale (cost) price.
- Looking forward, it is likely that fuel prices may lift modestly from here. In fact since peaking just over a month ago the Singapore unleaded fuel price has fallen by over $11.70 a barrel or 7.4 cents a litre in Australian dollar terms, while domestic pump prices have dropped by almost 8 cents a litre.
- The uncertainty and tension in the Middle East could be a key risk to higher global oil prices over the next few months. The main unknown is how the tension in the Middle East, particularly Syria is likely to play out. An escalation in conflict could push up global oil prices and feed through to higher domestic petrol prices in the next couple of months. In the last few days a delay in Libyan oil exports has supported a modest rise in global oil prices. CommSec expects pump prices to rise by around 1-2 cents a litre over the next fortnight.
What do the figures show?
Weekly petrol prices:
- According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 4.5 cents a litre to 149.2 c/l in the week to August 25. The metropolitan price fell by 6.3 c/l to 146.6 c/l, while the regional average price fell by 1.1 c/l to 154.3 c/l. The average diesel price was up by 0.1 cents a litre to 158.2 cents.
- Average unleaded petrol prices across states over the past week were: Sydney (down 8.1 cents to 143.8 c/l), Melbourne (down 8.9 cents to 144.6 c/l), Brisbane (down 8.3 cents to 146.3 c/l), Adelaide (up 0.5 cents to 150.4 c/l), Perth (down by 0.7 cents to 149.1 c/l), Darwin (unchanged at 166.9 c/l), Canberra (up 0.1 cents to 157.9 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.1 cents to 163.6 c/l).
- Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 141.0 c/l, down 0.4 cents a litre over the week and down 7.6 cents from highs set 24 days ago. Motorists can expect further relief at the petrol pump with prices to fall another 2-3 cents a litre over the next 7-10 days.
- Last week the key Singapore unleaded petrol price fell by US55c (0.5 per cent) to US$115.80 a barrel. And in Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $1.34 (1 per cent) last week to $128.54 a barrel or 80.8 cents a litre.
- Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
- Petrol prices look likely to track modestly higher over the coming fortnight. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore unleaded prices has lifted by almost $2 and it should result in a modest 1-2 cent lift in pump prices.
- CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sideline over the next few months, and digest how the economy responds after the election. If there is not a noted pickup in activity the Reserve Bank will deliberate the need for a further rate cut.
What is the importance of the economic data?
- Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
- Petrol prices look likely to track modestly higher over the coming fortnight. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore unleaded prices has lifted by almost $2 and it should result in a modest 1-2 cent lift in pump prices.
- CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sideline over the next few months, and digest how the economy responds after the election. If there is not a noted pickup in activity the Reserve Bank will deliberate the need for a further rate cut.
