Australia’s property price data to show a collapse in the year to June 2016

David Chin

Australia’s property prices will show a collapse in the year to June 2016, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data to be published today.

Basis Point Consulting, a firm active in the Australia-China investment sector, has been telling its clients that its prediction of a price collapse is a ‘no-brainer’.

David Chin, Managing Director of Basis Point says ‘It’s simply because the June quarter number last year of 8.9% in Sydney was a huge record rise which lifted the annual rise to a near record 9.7%.

Today will see the annual numbers fall off a cliff when the old quarterly data is replaced by the much lower price rises we’ve seen in the market lately. It’s really just mathematics.’

Mr. Chin speculated that the June 2016 quarter growth rate in Sydney will be under 2.0%, given the negative sentiment during that period. This means the annual growth rate to June 2016 will be a mere 2.8%. “Expect a reporting panic,” Mr. Chin said. “The headlines should be interesting.”

This plunge will make buyers and sellers recalibrate their outlook to expect more subdued growth in the year ahead.
David Chin used the same analysis to predict the inflation rate during the high inflation years in the 1990s when he was in the futures industry. ‘ It’s a no-brainer if the quarterly number that falls off the annual calculations was a large number relative to the other quarterly numbers, which is what we’ve seen in the property market in the past year’.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Basis Point