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Economic Update

Wall of worry: Mexico and Central America in a Trump era

02 Feb 2017
From

President-elect Donald Trump’s opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement and his stated intention to deport millions of illegal immigrants, if carried out, would have serious economic consequences for Mexico and parts of Central America.

However, a US president’s ability to unilaterally raise trade tariffs is limited and Lazard’s Emerging Markets Debt team believes that the Trump administration will face pushback from Congress and certain US businesses if protectionist measures are pursued.

Mass deportation of illegal immigrants appears unlikely to happen considering a large case backlog and long removal hearing wait times. The number of people meeting deportation criteria may be far lower than the 2–3 million cited by the Trump team, which should limit the impact for the affected countries.

Read Lazard Asset Management’s report.

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