Petrol near $1.50 a litre, but more affordable

From

Weekly Petrol prices

  • Petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell from two-month highs last week, down by 4.6 cents to 145.2 cents a litre. Petrol fell in all capital cities as discounting cycles began, especially in Melbourne and Brisbane. While petrol can occasionally be bought near $1.30 a litre, you can also pay near $1.60 in major cities.

The petrol figures have implications for retailers, especially petrol marketing groups.

What does it all mean?

  • There are few signs of relief for motorists. Over the past four months, unleaded petrol has held in a range of $1.40-$1.55 per litre. And the range looks likely to hold for the foreseeable future. So broadly Aussie motorists need to work on filling up at around $1.50 a litre. While Saudi Arabia, Russia and key OPEC nations are vowing to keep the world well-supplied with oil, there are concerns that sanctions on Iran will serve to limit global supplies.
  • On Friday Brent crude rose by US$1.09 or 1.5 per cent to US$75.82 a barrel and the US Nymex price rose by 89 cents or 1.3 per cent to US$68.72 a barrel. Over the week Brent rose by US$3.99 or 5.6 per cent and Nymex rose by US$2.81 or 4.3 per cent. Brent crude had previously fallen for three weeks and Nymex had fallen for seven weeks. The US dollar fell on Friday, boosting purchasing power of oil buyers in Europe and Asia. And the number of oil rigs in operation in the US fell by nine last week – the biggest weekly fall in over two years. Workers on three North Sea oil and gas platforms are also due to strike in September. There are concerns that the world will be under-supplied with oil in the December quarter of 2018.
  • Five years ago, the average Australian petrol price was 149.2 cents a litre. Today, petrol is lower at 145.2 cents a litre. Over the same period, the average wage lifted by almost 12 per cent. So while petrol prices have lifted sharply over the past year, looking back over a longer period of time, petrol affordability has actually improved.

What do the figures show?

Petrol prices

  • According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 4.6 cents to 145.2 cents a litre in the past week.
  • The metropolitan petrol price fell by 6.2 cents to 143.7 cents per litre and the regional price fell by 1.3 cents to 148.3 cents per litre. The gross retail margin fell by 5.7 cents to 8.60 cents.
  • Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down by 7.0 cents to 138.8 c/l), Melbourne (down by 8.8 cents to 144.1 c/l), Brisbane (down 8.4 cents to 148.1 c/l), Adelaide (down by 3.1 cents to 141.8 c/l), Perth (down by 0.1 cents to 142.8 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.2 cents at 155.0 c/l), Canberra (down by 0.1 cents to 152.7 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.1 cents to 158.4 c/l).
  • Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 135.8 cents a litre, down by 0.8 cents over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 138.8 cents a litre, down by 0.3 cents over the past week.
  • The national average diesel petrol price rose by 0.1 cents to 152.1 cents a litre over the week. The metropolitan price rose by 0.3 cents to 152.3 cents a litre with the regional price flat at 152.0 cents a litre.
  • Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$2.75 or 3.3 per cent to US$86.15 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price rose by $3.70 or 3.2 per cent last week to $118.34 a barrel or 74.43 cents a litre.
  • MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 145.8c; Melbourne 140.4c; Brisbane 145.2c; Adelaide 135.4c; Perth 137.3c; Canberra 152.7c; Darwin 154.9c; Hobart 158.3c.

What is the importance of the economic data?

  • Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

  • Unleaded petrol and diesel prices are hovering near $1.50 a litre. And while some may bemoan the lift in prices over the past year, over the longer-term, fuel has actually become more affordable. Unfortunately people tend to have shorter memories. Filling up the car with petrol is the single biggest weekly purchase for most families, so many will still regard fuel prices as ‘expensive’ and remain cautious about discretionary purchases.
  • CommSec expects interest rates to be unchanged until late 2019.