Petrol spikes to fresh 4-month highs

From

Weekly Petrol Prices

  • Weekly Petrol Price: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol rose by 9.1 cents in the past week to 143.7 cents a litre.

The petrol figures have implications for retailers, especially petrol marketing groups.

What does it all mean?

  • The high-point of the petrol discounting cycle was March 20 in both Sydney and Melbourne; March 17 in Brisbane; and March 14 in Adelaide. The cycle (highest price to lowest price) generally extends for around three weeks. Perth has its regular weekly price cycle and prices peak on a Tuesday.
  • The alignment of discounting cycles on the eastern seaboard largely explains the spike in the national average price in the past week. It was a similar story a month ago. Still, the bottom line is that families have to find extra dollars to fill the car with petrol, taking dollars away from other possible purchases.
  • OPEC producers are trying to limit oil production to stabilise crude oil near $60 a barrel. On the other side of the equation, a loss of momentum across global economies is restraining global demand for crude products and thus restraining oil prices.
  • Global oil prices fell on Friday with traders worried about the outlook for global crude demand. Traders reacted to weak manufacturing data in Germany and France. But supporting prices was data showing that the number of oil rigs in operation in the US fell to 12-month lows in the latest week. Brent crude fell by US83 cents or 1.2 per cent to US$67.03 a barrel and the US Nymex price fell by US94 cents or 1.6 per cent to US$59.04 a barrel. Over the week Brent fell by 0.2 per cent but Nymex was up by 0.9 per cent.
  • The Singapore gasoline price has lifted by 16.5 cents a litre from the end-December lows in Australian dollar terms. And the Australian wholesale (terminal gate) price is up by around 19 cents a litre from lows to just over 131 cents. Australian pump prices have lifted by 22.5 cents a litre from lows, but the average national price will ease over the coming week in line with discounting cycles in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

What do the figures show?

Petrol prices

  • According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol rose by 9.1 cents to 143.7 cents a litre in the past week.
  • The metropolitan petrol price rose by 11.5 cents to 145.7 cents per litre, and the regional price rose by 4.4 cents to 139.7 cents per litre.
  • Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (up by 15.9 cents to 146.1 c/l), Melbourne (up by 19.3 cents to 147.8 c/l), Brisbane (up by 11.6 cents to 150.7 c/l), Adelaide (down by 8.1 cents to 138.6 c/l), Perth (up by 3.2 cents to 139.3 c/l), Darwin (up by 3.9 cents to 139.7 c/l), Canberra (down by 0.6 cents to 142.4 c/l) and Hobart (up by 1.0 cents to 142.7 c/l).
  • The national average diesel petrol price rose by 0.8 cents to 149.1 cents a litre over the week. The metropolitan price rose by 0.8 cents to 148.7 cents a litre with the regional price up by 0.8 cents to 149.4 cents a litre.
  • Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 131.3 cents a litre, up by 1.7 cents over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 136.4 cents a litre, down 0.5 cents over the past week.
  • Last week, the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$1.29 or 1.7 per cent to a 4½-month high of US$76.79 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price rose by $1.44 or 1.4 per cent last week to a 4½-month high of $108.06 a barrel or 67.96 cents a litre.
  • MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 145.0c; Melbourne 146.5c; Brisbane 148.3c; Adelaide 130.8c; Perth 130.7c; Canberra 142.2c; Darwin 139.7c; Hobart 143.4c.

What is the importance of the economic data?

  • Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

  • Petrol prices continue to lift. The price of unleaded petrol at the bowser is generally $1.35-$1.50 a litre, up from $1.15-$1.30 earlier in the year. This equates to an average family spending around $20 extra per month on filling up the car with petrol. And the extra cost will keep consumers cautious about spending on non-essential or discretionary items. The higher petrol price is bad news for retailers.
  • Over the March quarter the petrol price has fallen by around 9.5 per cent, taking around 0.2-0.3 percentage points off the quarterly change of the Consumer Price Index.
  • CommSec still expects interest rates to be unchanged for the foreseeable future. But the loss of momentum across global economies means central banks are skewed to more accommodative monetary policies.