Overseas arrivals; Credit cards
- Tourism: Tourist arrivals rose by 6.3 per cent in May – the biggest monthly lift in international visitors since April 2017. And Aussie tourist departures lifted by 5.8 per cent – the largest monthly increase since May 2011. Over the year to May, arrivals were up 7.6 per cent and departures increased by 5.2 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. In trend terms, a record 941,900 Aussies travelled abroad in May.
- Record migration: The annual number of permanent and long-term overseas arrivals rose to a fresh record-high of 848,570 people, up by 5.7 per cent over the year to May.
- Chinese tourism: China is the largest source of tourists to Australia. Over the past year 1,445,500 tourists came to Australia from China, up by 1.0 per cent on the year earlier – the weakest annual growth rate in nine years.
- Credit cards: The number of credit cards rose from 9-year lows of 19.46 million to 19.48 million in May.
Tourism data is important for airlines, hotels and booking agents. Credit card data is important for the retail and financial sectors.
What does it all mean?
- The Aussie dollar may have fallen to 3-year lows against the greenback this year, hovering not far off decade lows, but that’s not stopping Aussie travellers. In fact, in seasonally adjusted terms, tourist departures surged by almost 6 per cent in May – the biggest monthly increase in eight years. A record number of Aussies are heading abroad on holidays.
- Where are Aussies jetting off to? Record numbers are heading off to a variety of exotic locations, including the Cook Islands, Ireland, Italy, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, India and Canada.
- On the flipside, Australia is benefiting from an upturn in international tourist numbers as trips ‘Down Under’ become even cheaper for overseas holidaymakers. Visitor arrivals lifted by almost 6 per cent in May, the strongest monthly gain in over two years. Visitor numbers were at record highs from far-flung destinations like the Netherlands, Denmark, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh and Colombia.
- The slowing economy isn’t deterring migrants from flocking ‘Down Under’ in hope of a better life. The annual number of permanent and long-term overseas arrivals rose to a fresh record-high of 848,570 people, up by nearly 6 per cent over the year to May.
What do the figures show?
Tourism
- Tourist arrivals rose by 6.3 per cent in May – the biggest monthly lift in international visitors since April 2017.
- Aussie tourist departures lifted by 5.8 per cent – the largest monthly increase since May 2011.
- Over the year to May, arrivals were up 7.6 per cent – the strongest annual growth rate in 14 months. And departures increased by 5.2 per cent.
- In May, tourists from Greater China (China and Hong Kong) totalled a record-high 160,300 (mainland China 132,300; Hong Kong 28,000), ahead of New Zealand (120,800).
- China is the largest source of tourists to Australia. Over the past year 1,445,500 tourists came to Australia from China, up by 1.0 per cent on the year earlier – the weakest annual growth rate in nine years.
- A record 367,300 Indian tourists travelled to Australia over the year to May, up by 11.3 per cent on a year ago.
- In May, there were record tourist inflows from Fiji, the Netherlands, Denmark, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Colombia.
- And in the month of May a record number of Aussies travelled to the Cook Islands, Ireland, Italy, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, India and Canada.
Migration
- In May, there were 53,320 permanent and long-term arrivals in Australia – the fewest in 12 months. But the annual number of permanent and long-term overseas arrivals rose to a fresh record-high of 848,570 people, up by 5.7 per cent over the year.
- In net terms (arrivals less departures) permanent and long-term overseas arrivals totalled 294,430 over the year to May.
Credit and debit card lending
- The number of personal credit and charge card accounts stood at 14.4 million in May.
- The number of commercial credit card accounts rose from 1,186,900 in April to 1,191,700 in May.
- The number of credit cards rose from 9-year lows of 19.46 million in April to 19.48 million in May.
- The number of credit and charge card purchase transactions in May was up 4.9 per cent on a year ago with the value up just 2.2 per cent.
- The value of overseas purchases made with personal credit and charge cards in May was 2.1 per cent lower than a year ago. Earlier, in January, overseas purchases were down by 6.3 per cent on a year ago, the biggest fall in 9 years.
What is the importance of the economic data?
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases data on overseas arrivals and departures, produced monthly and is an indicator of the health of the tourism sector. The figures are also useful in understanding spending trends and tracking migrant numbers – an indicator with widespread implications for employment, housing and spending
- The Reserve Bank releases data on credit and debit card transactions each month. The credit card figures are useful in highlighting consumer borrowing and spending trends.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
- Australia remains a highly sought-after holiday destination for overseas visitors. While the country is blessed with stunning natural wonders, the weaker value of the Aussie dollar – mainly due to interest rate differentials – is a key factor.
- The Canadian dollar currently sits at its highest level against its Aussie counterpart in nine years. Official interest rates in Canada are 75 basis points (1.75 per cent) higher than Australia, supporting the currency. And Canadians are taking advantage, flocking to Australia in record numbers.
- Has the US-China trade dispute affected Australia? Absolutely. While not showing up in the trade numbers yet, there has been a sharp slowdown of Chinese tourists coming to Australia over the past year. In fact, the annual growth rate of Chinese tourism is the slowest in nine years.
- Weakening economic activity and political tensions around technology, communications and trade have influenced Chinese tourist numbers.
- But it’s not all bad news for Aussie airlines, hotels and tour operators. There was a nice bounce in tourist numbers during the month of May with a tentative sign of a bottoming in Chinese visitor numbers.
- And Australia still remains a preferred destination for permanent migrants, adding some additional support to the property market.
- The Reserve Bank is expected to assess incoming economic data over the coming months before deciding the next move for the cash rate.
