Expectations of peak inflation drove positive returns across most sectors of the market in November, leading to a bounce in returns following the subdued earnings reported between August and October. Leading research house SuperRatings estimates the median balanced option will deliver a return of 3.1% for the month of November.
“Despite the uncertainties around inflation, markets, and rates, we have seen funds recording strong returns into Christmas.” commented Kirby Rappell, Executive Director of SuperRatings.
The median growth option similarly experienced a strong month with an estimated 3.5% gain, while the median capital stable option experienced a more modest return of 2.0% owing to a lower exposure to shares.
November’s strong performance was also reflected in pension returns, with the median balanced pension option returning an estimated 3.4%. The median growth option is estimated to see a gain of 3.9% for the month, while the median capital stable pension option is estimated to deliver a 2.3% return.
The estimated gains in November are set to recover most of the losses over the last few months, setting up a modest, but positive, scene for most members as they approach the halfway point of the financial year. SuperRatings estimates the median fund will provide members with a 1.0% gain for the first 5 months of the financial year.
Despite modest returns over the second half of the year, funds are on track to deliver a 6.8% return after the first 11 months of the calendar year for the median balanced option. While the final result will be dependent on December performance, members are expected to see a reasonable positive return for calendar year, which may be similar to the estimated 6.4% p.a. for the median balanced option since 2000.
“We continue to believe that inflation will be a strong driver of markets in 2024, coupled with softening consumer demand; however, most members should remain reassured by super funds ability to navigate the range of market conditions we’ve seen over the past few years.” commented Mr Rappell. “December has been more mixed for shares so far, however there is still potential for a Santa rally in the second half of the month, and we encourage members to remain focused on their long-term outcomes.”
