Path to recession isn’t definite, but it’s getting clearer


With the U.S. expansion reaching almost seven years of age, business balance sheets worsening and credit market debt to equity increasing, there is mounting concern that we are headed towards another economic recession. Principal Global Investors have released their latest economic insights paper by Chief Global Economist, Bob Baur, and Senior Global Economist, Robin Anderson,... Read more continue reading

Innovation funding program a key building block for the future of Australia


Australian venture capital firm OneVentures believes the National Commission of Audit’s recommendations to dissolve key innovation funding programs like the Innovation Investment Fund (IIF) would be a step backwards for Australia, calling on the Government to reinforce its support for these initiatives in the upcoming Federal Budget, citing innovation as the key in creating new... Read more continue reading

Housing affordability improves, but first home-buyers still missing in action


The Adelaide Bank/Real Estate Institute of Australia Housing Affordability Report for the September quarter 2013 recorded an improvement in housing affordability with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments decreasing 1.2 percentage points to 29.8%. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the figure fell 3.5 percentage points. All states and... Read more continue reading

Capex – QIII 2013


Mining capex looks set to plateau at close to 8% of GDP in 2013/14.  The real drag on GDP growth from falling mining capex looks to be some time away. The non‑mining investment outlook looks stronger than that reported in the previous capex survey three months ago. The ABS capex survey underestimates non‑mining capex.  Other... Read more continue reading

Inflation or Deflation: Are we about to find out?


Avid readers of The van Eyk View and our other publications know all too well the importance we give to inflation regimes as predictors of future returns. In fact, in the Interactive Asset Allocation Model recently made available on our online research portal iRate, the likelihood attributed to each of four different inflation scenarios (Functional... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic & market update

Europe is continuing to cause shockwaves in financial markets with increasing resistance to fiscal austerity (with the temporary collapse of the Dutch coalition Government and the Socialist candidate’s victory in the first round French Presidential elections), more soft economic data including 24.4% Spanish unemployment and Standard & Poor’s downgrading of Spain. However, Europe will probably... Read more continue reading

Rate cut all but certain after weak inflation data


The Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – rose by 0.1 per cent in the March quarter, well below expectations centred on a 0.6 per cent rise in prices. In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI fell by 0.2 per cent. The CPI stands just 1.6 per cent higher than a... Read more continue reading

Aussie 10-year bond yields hit 61-year low


Yields on Australian 10-year bonds have fallen to the lowest levels since the early 1950s. This week, Aussie 10-year government bond yields hit 3.648 per cent – the lowest yield since June 1951 when yields averaged 3.51 per cent, according to Reserve Bank data. Australian 3 year bonds also ease. Yields on 3-year bonds hit... Read more continue reading

Oliver’s Insights: Australia – the RBA, the economy & shares

For some time our view has been that Australian interest rates need to be lower. The Reserve Bank at its last meeting seemed to be finally coming around to this view, but preferred to wait for the release of March quarter inflation data. Well the inflation data is now out and it’s far weaker than... Read more continue reading

Business deflation?


The broad measure of business inflation – the producer price index (PPI), or final stage prices, – fell by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter – marking the biggest quarterly fall since December 2009. The result was well below forecasts for a 0.5 per cent rise. The fall in inflation was largely driven by... Read more continue reading