What if dwelling prices were included in the CPI?

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House price cycles are not captured in the CPI because the cost of land is excluded from the consumer basket. The CPI is a poor barometer of changes in the cost of living for people who don’t own a dwelling and aspire to purchase one. Consumer price inflation would look very different in Australia if

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State and Territory perspective

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Most economic commentary is focussed at the national level. This Commonwealth Bank report digs below the headline numbers and compares outcomes across Australia’s States and Territories. The quarterly report analyses how the States and Territories are performing across a range of economic indicators and detail our key economic forecasts for each region. Read the report.

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Public capital investment – more bark than bite?

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Public investment has been trending down as a share of GDP since mid‑2010. But analysis of the 2016/17 State and Federal Budgets shows that public sector investment is likely to post a solid increase over the fiscal year and make a positive contribution to GDP growth. We argue that more can (and should) be done

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Why is non‑mining business investment so weak and what is the outlook?

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A lift in non‑mining investment remains the missing ingredient in the Australian economic growth transition story. Some of the cyclical drivers of business investment have moved in a direction that favours a lift in business capex. But there are other forces at play which are holding back non‑mining capital investment. We expect weak non‑mining capex

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State and territory perspective

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Most economic commentary is focussed at the national level. This report digs below the headline numbers and compares outcomes across Australia’s States and Territories. CBA Economics analyses how the states and territories are performing across a range of economic indicators and details their key economic forecasts for each region. This report is published quarterly. Click here

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RBA’s Kent on the labour market

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Kent reiterates the RBA’s view that the unemployment rate should be “little changed from recent levels over the next 18 months”. The labour market has been “adjusting more smoothly over the past year” than the RBA had previously thought. A stable unemployment rate is consistent with a stable cash rate and therefore the risk of

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Credit growth steps up, again

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Private Sector Credit – January 2015 Total credit to the private sector rose by 0.6% in January.  Annual growth stepped up to 6.2%. Housing credit was up 0.6% over the month and sits 7.1% higher on year ago levels.  Growth in the investor component has breached the 10% threshold APRA has set. Business credit rose

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House prices take a breather over September

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RP Data‑Rismark report that Australian dwelling prices rose by a small 0.1% over September.  Annual growth eased to 9.3%. Dwelling prices growth has been strongest in Australia’s two largest capital cities, Sydney and Melbourne, over the past year.  Prices in Sydney rose by 0.8% in September while they fell by 0.8% in Melbourne. The RBA

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Declining commodity prices and an elevated AUD weigh on exports

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Trade Balance – May 2014 The May trade figures showed a large deficit of $1.9bn Declining commodity prices and an elevated AUD over the month weighed on export receipts. Exports of goods and services were down by 4.6% over the month, driven by falls in iron ore and coal. Imports fell by 0.6% due to

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Consument sentiment still being impacted by negativity around the Federal Budget

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Consumer Sentiment – June Consumer sentiment rose by a small 0.2% in June but is 8.8% below year its year ago level Confidence is still being adversely impacted by the negativity around the Federal Budget. The positive news is that job security fears receded marginally.  The unemployment expectations index has now fallen for three months

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