Is the (recession) wolf finally at the door for the Federal Reserve, and will Lowe’s path to become narrower?

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The Fed. Is the (recession) wolf finally at the door? For the last couple of years bond markets looked to have been ‘crying wolf” on recession prospects. Is SVB a

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16 Mar 2023

Markets juggle the ‘hot potato’ of policy guidance as central banks search for ‘wiggle room’

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Markets juggle the ‘hot potato’ of policy guidance as central banks search for ‘wiggle room’ One of the earlier hits of renowned Australian kids band, the Wiggles, involved juggling a

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10 Mar 2023

Peak inflation: a plateau or a turning point? That is the question for the RBA

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly lift the policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.60 per cent when it meets on 7 March. The RBA

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06 Mar 2023

The Fed remains primarily focussed on inflation containment – 2023 will be a year of slow growth

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US Federal Reserve (the Fed) FOMC minutes Last night’s release of the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) ‎Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes indicate that the Fed remains primarily

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24 Feb 2023

Lowe’s woe

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2022 may have been an annus horribilis for RBA Governor, Philip Lowe. And so far 2023 doesn’t seem to be much better. In the last week he has been pilloried

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17 Feb 2023

Deglobalisation and its impact on world markets (Part two)

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Deglobalisation implies a regime change, with trend increases in capex and the labour share, as well as a higher cost of capital, lower potential growth and greater government involvement in

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06 Feb 2023

Promising signs for markets but inflation still the big unknown

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Local and global equity markets – in particular Chinese and Asian equities – are positioned well for 2023, but inflation is the joker in the pack for investors, according to

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25 Jan 2023

Deglobalisation and its impact on world markets (Part one)

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Deglobalisation will have broad impacts on supply chains, company earnings and markets. All is explained in this article from GSFM’s investment partner Epoch Investment Partners. Globalisation’s golden age began around

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23 Jan 2023

Wages growth to challenge the “Australian exceptionalism” narrative and FOMC meets next week

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Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises 25 basis points as expected. Wages growth to challenge the “Australian exceptionalism” narrative. Upside risk to market pricing of the RBA policy rate. As

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09 Dec 2022

Trend following strategies in an inflationary environment

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Trend following strategies capture upward and downward trends in traditional markets, which has made such strategies popular alternative investments for financial advisers looking to diversify client portfolios. This article from

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01 Dec 2022