Where to for US bond yields?

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The last few months have been characterised by high levels of volatility in the US bond market. Longer tenor bond yields have risen sharply this year with the 10-year yield

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10 Nov 2023

RBA: a view from the hawk’s nest

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At the time of the release of the September quarter consumer price index (CPI), I suggested that an annual increase of 5.2 per cent in the annual trimmed-mean (TM) inflation

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06 Nov 2023

September quarter consumer price index: the RBA to reveal hawk talons

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An annual increase of 5.2 per cent in the annual trimmed-mean (TM) inflation rate makes a policy rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday, 7 November

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26 Oct 2023

RBA: exercising the hawk’s talons! 

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In refreshing contrast to her predecessors and peers, new Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, Michele Bullock, has an endearingly plain-spoken and direct approach.  That was on display this week.

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20 Oct 2023

“Sticky” services inflation suggests a policy rate hike remains on the Fed agenda and NAB Monthly Business Survey leaves open the prospect of further rate hikes

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“Sticky” services inflation, a still elevated core inflation result for September and a slightly higher than anticipated headline number means that a further increase in the policy rate remains on

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16 Oct 2023

RBA skips, no change from RBNZ and coming up the US September non-farm payrolls

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RBA skips, but has it stopped? As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia Board chose to “skip” a policy rate increase when it met on Tuesday. Put simply, the “data

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06 Oct 2023

Recession… what recession?

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Since August of 2022 the Bloomberg consensus has placed a probability of 50% or more on a US recession occurring within the next 12 months. However, despite 525 basis points

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04 Oct 2023

A Fed “skip” and BoE modest August CPI cast doubt on policy rate hike

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At its recent meeting, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) opted to “skip” a hike in the policy rate. However, the Fed indicated that more policy

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22 Sep 2023

US August CPI and ECB to raise the policy rate 25 bps at Thursday’s meeting

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A slightly higher-than-anticipated core inflation result probably means that a further increase in the policy rate is on the agenda for next week’s Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

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15 Sep 2023

RBA treads a cautious path

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As was widely expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.10 per cent at Tuesday’s meeting. That was appropriate given the most

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11 Sep 2023