RBA minutes, Bullock commentary and bond markets waiting for policy rate cuts like waiting for Godot

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RBA minutes, Bullock commentary: a December policy rate hike looks unlikely. Governor’s communication well framed Yesterday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meeting minutes from the 7 November  Board meeting

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24 Nov 2023

US October consumer price index: risk of policy rate hike recedes…but are markets getting ahead of themselves in pricing multiple easing’s?

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A slightly better than expected core consumer price index (CPI) inflation result for October suggests that the Fed tightening cycle is likely in abeyance – probably indefinitely. The Federal Reserve (Fed)

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16 Nov 2023

To hedge or not to hedge

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There are lots of great reasons to invest in global equities. However, many investors don’t realise they may be investing in two asset classes – equities and currency. This article

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13 Nov 2023

Where to for US bond yields?

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The last few months have been characterised by high levels of volatility in the US bond market. Longer tenor bond yields have risen sharply this year with the 10-year yield

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10 Nov 2023

RBA: a view from the hawk’s nest

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At the time of the release of the September quarter consumer price index (CPI), I suggested that an annual increase of 5.2 per cent in the annual trimmed-mean (TM) inflation

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06 Nov 2023

September quarter consumer price index: the RBA to reveal hawk talons

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An annual increase of 5.2 per cent in the annual trimmed-mean (TM) inflation rate makes a policy rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday, 7 November

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26 Oct 2023

RBA: exercising the hawk’s talons! 

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In refreshing contrast to her predecessors and peers, new Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, Michele Bullock, has an endearingly plain-spoken and direct approach.  That was on display this week.

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20 Oct 2023

“Sticky” services inflation suggests a policy rate hike remains on the Fed agenda and NAB Monthly Business Survey leaves open the prospect of further rate hikes

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“Sticky” services inflation, a still elevated core inflation result for September and a slightly higher than anticipated headline number means that a further increase in the policy rate remains on

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16 Oct 2023

RBA skips, no change from RBNZ and coming up the US September non-farm payrolls

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RBA skips, but has it stopped? As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia Board chose to “skip” a policy rate increase when it met on Tuesday. Put simply, the “data

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06 Oct 2023

Recession… what recession?

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Since August of 2022 the Bloomberg consensus has placed a probability of 50% or more on a US recession occurring within the next 12 months. However, despite 525 basis points

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04 Oct 2023