Negative bond yields: What does it mean, and what’s the end game?

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Since the beginning of this year, financial markets and expectations have turned decidedly bearish. Concerns about a Sino-US trade war, along with the so-called ‘inversion’ of the US yield curve, have heightened apprehension of a US-led recession. This is highlighted by the recent increase in negative-yielding bonds. As per the chart below, the amount of […]

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Quay’s strong performance sees rating upgrade

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The Quay Global Real Estate Fund has been upgraded to a recommended rating from Zenith Investment Partners, recognising the fund’s recent strong performance and business growth. The Quay Global Real Estate Fund, which was launched in 2014, is the flagship fund of Quay Global Investors, founded by portfolio managers Justin Blaess and Chris Bedingfield as […]

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CPD: Where profits come from, and the vulnerabilities in Australian corporate earnings

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Key points Equity investors rejoiced in June as the Fed signaled it may cut interest rates – but interest rates do not drive long run equity performance. Profits do. While the Fed gets a lot of credit for the US bull equity run, the reality is that market performance has been supported by a near […]

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CPD: A conservative government, falling interest rates, and new APRA lending guidelines; what now for residential property?

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The RBA recently cut its official interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.25%. Along with the recent win by the conservative government (that campaigned on maintaining tax concessions for property investors), there is now a growing expectation that the recent decline in residential prices will end – with some commentators […]

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CPD: Modern Monetary Theory, and why you’re still hearing a lot more about it

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Last month we published our take on one of the biggest economic discussions today – Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Most of the public debate to date has centred around the role of government: that is, deficits, the causes of inflation, and implications for public policy. As we stated last month, however, MMT is extremely detailed […]

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CPD: Modern Monetary Theory, and why you’re about to hear a lot more about it

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If you’re paying attention to US politics, you may be aware of an emerging new[i] economic theory supported by many US Democrats, including Congress ‘freshman’ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This economic framework is generally known as Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT. There have been a number of ‘hot takes’ from economists and journalists on the topic over […]

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CPD: The great unwind of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and whether it actually matters

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Gyrations in equity markets over the past three months have been significant. After a -4.2% decline in December and -11% fall for the final quarter of 2018, global equities have recovered strongly, up 9.5% so far this year. Much of this volatility can be attributed to geopolitical concerns and trade, but focus on the Federal […]

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“Outstanding” SQM rating for Quay Global Investors

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SQM has upgraded Quay Global Investors, a Bennelong boutique, to its highest rating category of “Outstanding” (4½ stars). The rating indicates that SQM believes the Quay Global Real Estate Fund “most often outperforms its peers and benchmark” and that “management is extremely experienced and skilled and has access to significant resources”. SQM stated it considers the […]

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CPD: Will the US yield curve invert?

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And what will that tell us about the economy, equities and real estate? It’s been 10 years since the global financial crisis tore through markets in the months surrounding the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October 2008. While the tussle between the bulls and bears is always ongoing, in the time since it has been […]

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Interest rates may be set to fall: Quay Global Investors

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Contrary to the general consensus outlook, interest rates are probably set to fall as Australia’s household debt reaches an all-time high, according to principal and portfolio manager of Quay Global Investors, Chris Bedingfield. “As Australian household debt relative to income has steadily increased, there is now meaningful downside risk to the economy as the housing […]

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