Weekly Economic Briefing With all the negative headlines coming out of the Ukraine and Middle East in recent weeks, it has been easy to forget that the global economy is actually in fairly good shape. Helped by generally loose financial conditions, as well as pent-up demand in most developed economies after years of tepid growth, […]
continue readingThe global economy is finally stabilising as the recovery in the US spreads to the rest of the developed world. As summer fades and an autumnal chill enters the air in the northern hemisphere, the developing world appears to be emerging from the long economic winter that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. In […]
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01
Oct
2013
Key events of the past week and implications Global share and bond markets got a big lift over the past week as first Larry Summers dropped out of the race to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed chairman, reducing fears of a more bearish Fed, and more importantly the Fed surprised markets by maintaining its asset […]
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23
Sep
2013
“We have held a very cautious view of the global economic environment for some time, and events have proved this caution to be well founded. We continue to expect that the economic outlook will be difficult and that the overhang of debt will cast a very heavy shadow for an extended period. However, we believe […]
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21
Nov
2012
Global monetary easing continued over the past week with the Reserve Bank of India cutting banks’ required cash ratios and the Bank of Japan increasing the size of its quantitative easing program and extending it by six months till the end of 2013. The Reserve Bank of India’s easing may in part be a response […]
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24
Sep
2012
The past few weeks have been interesting. Sovereign rating downgrades in Europe have intensified. The World Bank and now the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have slashed their growth forecasts for this year and warned of the risk of a global downturn worse than that associated with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Yet share markets and […]
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31
Jan
2012
The prospect of a sovereign default in Europe evokes memories of 2008 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers. For me, a better parallel is 10 years earlier because today’s unfolding drama has all the hallmarks of a classic Latin American crisis, only the Latins are in southern Europe. The Russian default, itself an echo of […]
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11
Oct
2011
The global economy is rebalancing down, as the stresses on the developed economies have increased. Odds therefore favor a global growth recession rather than a full-scale global recession, according to BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard B. Hoey in his September 2011 Economic Update. “The key to the global economic outlook is whether the resolution of […]
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30
Sep
2011
The big picture Confused about where the economy is heading? You’re in good company, with the boffins from the Reserve Bank also seemingly scratching their collective heads about where things are going. Earlier in the year the policymakers appeared confident that the economy would rebound strongly after the floods and cyclones and flagged the risk […]
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07
Jul
2011
Reserve Bank Board meeting The Reserve Bank Board has left the cash rate at 4.75 per cent for the eighth straight month (covering seven formal meetings). The next meeting is on August 2 2011. The Reserve Bank has become more “dovish” – that is, it has backed away from rate hikes. Economic growth “is now […]
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05
Jul
2011
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