
Damien Hennessy
“The macroeconomic picture will continue to dominate, and the events of the past month have reminded us that the environment that we are in now, geopolitical risk and policy risk is a key feature.”
“Coming into this, it looked as if the US was very close to achieving its soft landing, but what I expect to see over the next three months are signs that the US economy is slowing. Markets are pricing in a 20-30 per cent recession probability, whereas going back just three weeks, it was 50-60 per cent. To me, markets are becoming a bit complacent to some of the downside risks that we still see out there.”
”What’s interesting is that Australia seems to be immune from this – our market ended up in April – and so the Australian economy seems to be improving off a low base. So, although I expect to see the RBA cut rates, there may be only two moves over 2025.”
“Economies are more inflation prone, so in times like this we see appeal in real assets, such as infrastructure , as they tend to perform reasonably well in that environment. We’ve also added Global REITs more on valuation grounds, and we continue to maintain a focus on quality when it comes to equities.”
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