An update on how the Australian economy looks on a per capita basis

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Strong population growth continues to boost Australia’s aggregate growth rates which paint a more positive picture on the economy than what most households are experiencing. Per capita measures on the economy, particularly those relating to income, suggest that there hasn’t been a lot of joy for households since the end of the mining boom. Local

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Will higher commodity prices lead to better wage outcomes this year?

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Wages growth and commodity prices have historically shown a strong correlation. Given this relationship the surge in commodity prices which began in mid 2016 is pointing to faster wages growth in 2017. However our forecast is for only a modest lift in the pace of wages growth. This is because higher commodity prices are expected

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Housing credit growth firm but business credit growth is slowing

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Total credit to the private sector rose by 0.4% in September. Annual growth stepped down to 5.4%. Housing credit was up by 0.5% over the month and sits 6.4% higher on year ago levels. Business credit rose by a tepid 0.2% and the trend is weak. The 5.4% rise in total credit over the year

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Australia clocked 24million people in the March quarter

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Australia’s population rose by 0.4% over QI and annual growth held steady at 1.4%. Australia’s population is estimated to be 24.1million as at March 2016. Net migration continues to be the driver of population growth, although its contribution to growth has eased. Victoria’s population is expanding at a much faster rate than the rest of

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A stronger employment report than the headline numbers imply

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Yesterday’s 7.9k lift in jobs was a touch lower than market expectations which were centred on a lift of 10.0k (CBA(f) +5k). The headline numbers suggest the report was a soft one. But digging below the surface and accounting for sample rotation impacts shows the outcome was relatively decent. Employment The reported increase in jobs was

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Business investment continues to slide

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Capex – QIII 2015 The 4th estimate of 2015‑16 capital spending came in at $120.4bn, slightly better than expected. Mining plans came in at $56b and non‑mining plans are now at $64bn. However, business investment will still remain a drag on the economy over the next financial year. Capex fell by 9.2% in QIII, to

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Stronger iron ore prices lift export receipts

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Balance on Goods and Services – September 2015 The goods and services trade deficit came in at $2.3bn in September. Total exports rose by 3.4% and total imports rose by 1.7%. A recovery in iron ore prices lifted export receipts over September. The start of new LNG plant production means further upside to resource volume

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How far through the mining jobs decline are we?

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The RBA estimates that mining construction related job losses will total 90K from the mining capex peak (end 2012) to trough (end 2018). On our calculations, we are around 20% of the way through this decline in mining construction jobs. One of the offsets to falling mining construction employment will be higher operational employment as

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Retail trade disappoints in May despite positive influences on consumers

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Retail spending rose by a modest 0.3% over May with annual growth now sitting at 4.7%. Spending rose in food (+0.7%), household goods retailing (+0.8%), other retailing (+0.3%).  And retail spending fell in department stores (‑1.4%), clothing & soft goods retailing (‑0.8%) and cafes, restaurants & takeaway food services (‑0.2%). A surge in housing construction

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Jobs figures – employment falls in April

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Labour Force – April 2015 Employment fell by by a small 2.9k in April following an upwardly revised 48.1k lift in March (previously reported as +37.7k). The fall in employment was driven by a 21.9k fall in full‑time jobs largely offset by a 19.0k increase in part‑time employment. The unemployment rate edged up a tad

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