RBA March board meeting: Nothing to see here

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The RBA meets tomorrow with no real prospect of any policy change. Recent communication suggests that the RBA would be ‘patient’ in withdrawing any policy stimulus. If anything, recent wage developments and the uncertainties wrought by the Russia/Ukraine conflict would only reinforce the RBA’s ‘patient’ disposition. Such themes are likely to be enunciated in the

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WPI gives the RBA some breathing space

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The December quarter wage price index (WPI) was pretty much on Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and market expectations, with the private sector WPI coming in at 0.7 per cent for the quarter for an annual increase of 2.4 per cent. Taken at face value, such an outcome should ease some of the pressure on

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Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes suggest communication back on a more even keel – waiting for wages data but is the wait too long?

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Improved clarity of RBA communications After a period toward the latter part of 2021 when the RBA communication process seemed to descend into the realm of the confusing, the RBA has injected some clarity in the enunciation of its approach. After a clumsy conflation of what it had termed ‘outcomes based forward guidance’ (OBFG) with

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CPD: Smaller companies, bigger opportunities

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Australia’s smaller companies A company’s market capitalisation – the total number of its shares on issue multiplied by the latest share price – dictates which index (if any) a company is a constituent of. Companies with lower market capitalisations are known colloquially as small caps. There are 2,200[1] ASX-listed smaller companies stocks; however, just 200

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GSFM on RBA meeting: A little better communication but little action guaranteed

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In the wake of the release of the December quarter CPI, it was clear that the RBA had ‘a lot of wood to chop’. Despite growing evidence to the contrary, the RBA had retained a central scenario that was at one end of the inflation risk continuum, despite accumulating evidence to the contrary of an

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Global and local market outlook positive but COVID-19 uncertainty remains

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The first half of 2022 will continue to be an uncertain time for markets as the full impact of the Omicron variant makes its mark on the Australian economy – but there are still opportunities for investors, with certain sectors and thematics set to shine, according to GSFM and its fund manager partners Munro Partners,

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CPD: Global equities- Reflation, duration and salvation

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Reflation In the last quarter of 2021, inflation was definitely the topic du jour; however, inflation is only one third of the reflation story. Reflation is important, because it will likely result from interest rates moving upward and as illustrated in figure one, rates have hit an inflection point. There are three key factors that

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Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting commentary

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The RBA Board meeting on Tuesday is unlikely to elicit much by way of policy announcements or even changes to the policy roadmap. That will come at the next meeting in February when a decision on quantitative easing (QE) will need to be made.  However, unlike most other developed countries, Australia has not had an

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Omicron more a ‘tactical’ than ‘strategic’ consideration

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Powell pivot sees “taper tantrum” or is it “rate rise reflux”? Omicron more a “tactical” than “strategic” consideration at this point. This year the big themes in markets when it comes to central bank policy have been continuing waves of the COVID-19 virus versus price pressures that have morphed into stubbornly persistent inflation. That appears

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CPD: The investment case for climate

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While the world has been preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic, another epidemic has emerged alongside it: the accelerating rush among nations and corporations to announce carbon reduction targets to address climate change. This article from GSFM discusses the investment opportunity presented by addressing climate change. While the advent of the internet has been life changing

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