Beyond trade and tariffs

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Trade and tariffs Volatility has returned and the red hot stock market that began the year has now downshifted closer to neutral. While the macro data continues to be lackluster – consistent with our view that the global economy is decelerating towards potential – much of the recent malaise has been driven by the on-again, […]

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Australian Actuaries Climate Index shows a summer of extremes

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The Australian Actuaries Climate Index shows Summer of 2018-19 was a season of record extremes; the number of hot days reached record levels, there were all time high levels of extreme rainfall in tropical regions and parts of central NSW were caught in ongoing drought. The index was released yesterday, and is the second quarterly […]

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Regional jobless rates: Winners and losers

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Detailed labour force; Consumer confidence Regional unemployment: Last week we highlighted where we could be doing better in reducing unemployment across different age groups. This week we focus on the regions. The regions with the highest unemployment rates are dominated by Queensland and Western Australia. The regions with the lowest jobless rates can be predominately […]

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Insight Multi-Asset weekly update: Equities markets weaken on trade and poorer growth data

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Market and economic review Equities and government bond yields fell again last week on data suggesting a poor growth outlook and increasing trade war tensions Continued escalation of trade tensions and poor provisional PMI data points led equities to close lower after a choppy week. The core government bond complex saw yields move lower, with […]

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Weekly market update – week ending 24 May, 2019

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets fell over past week amid escalating noise around the US/China trade war and increasing signs that it may be impacting business conditions. However, Australia’s “miracle” election set off a surge in the Australian share market with investors pricing out the risk of a […]

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Balanced Budget: Opposition must support tax plan

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Monthly Financial Statements Budget: The Federal Budget is effectively balanced. In the twelve months to April 2019, the Budget deficit stood at $33 million (less than 0.1 per cent of GDP). Other surplus measures: Over the same 12-month period to April, the fiscal balance was in surplus by $4,846 million (0.2 per cent of GDP). […]

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CommSec Research: Stable spending through election period

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Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Index Economy-wide spending doesn’t appear to have been unduly affected through the election period. The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI), rose by 0.5 per cent in trend terms in April, down only from the 0.6 per cent growth recorded over February and March. Spending growth remains above the 0.4 per […]

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Post-election boost for shares; Domestic travel slumps; Petrol hits 6-month high

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Petrol prices; Domestic air travel; Housing affordability Weekly Petrol Price: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol rose by 3.7 cents in the past week to a 6-month high of 152.8 cents a litre. Election aftermath: The CommSec assessment of the Federal Election result was published yesterday. Election […]

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Federal election wrap

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Economic perspective The ruling Liberal/National Party Coalition was returned to power in the Federal Election held on May 18. On the night of the election, Prime Minister Scott Morrison claimed victory. Opposition Labor leader, Bill Shorten, conceded defeat. Bill Shorten also indicated that he wouldn’t re-contest the Labor leadership. At the time of writing, the […]

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State Street says Brexit uncertainty keeps UK growth below trend

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With trade deals stalling it’s easy to forget about Brexit. However, Europe needs careful consideration and due attention. While there are signs of Eurozone stabilisation, political uncertainty, especially around Brexit, persists. If Mrs May’s Brexit deal/ a parliamentary consensus is agreed before European Parliament elections towards the end of May, the Bank of England may […]

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