US/China trade headwinds will continue to be a drag

From

US/China trade headwinds will continue to be a drag on global growth. In isolation, very small effect on the US, larger on China. However, the cross-over effects to manufacturing will be felt the longer it lasts. Manufacturing/industrial weakness could eventually spill over into labor trends and then the US consumer would be affected. Uncertainty will […]

continue reading

Australian house prices back from the abyss – seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

From

Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been undersupplied. The combination of rate cuts, the election and a modest regulatory relaxation have helped turn property prices back up, but […]

continue reading

Confused consumers are unsure about saving

From

Consumer confidence Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment index fell by 1.7 per cent to 98.2 in September. Wisest places for savings: The proportion of people that ‘don’t know’ where is the wisest place to put new savings lifted from 6.4 per cent to a record (24-year) high of 8.7 per cent. […]

continue reading

Can negative yielding bonds deliver positive returns?

From

The trade war enters new prolonged phase as both sides escalate keeping macro data weak President Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs imposed on Chinese goods early in August set the tone for a material flight to quality rally across global bond markets.  China responded by adding tariffs to US goods, continuing to operate in a […]

continue reading

Insight Multi-Asset weekly update – week commencing 9 September, 2019

From

Market and economic review US-China trade talks resume and constructive political developments support risk assets Risk assets performed well last week as investor sentiment was buoyed by a series of supportive trade and political developments. The main catalyst was the agreement between the US and China to meet for a new round of trade talks, […]

continue reading

Annual business trading conditions hit 4-year low; Chinese annual food inflation hits 7½-year high

From

NAB Business survey; Weekly consumer sentiment; China data Business survey: The NAB business confidence index fell from +3.8 points in July to +1.4 points in August. The long-term average is +5.9 points. And the business conditions index fell from +2.6 points in July to a near 5-year low of +0.5 points in August. The long-term […]

continue reading

Weekly market update – week ending 6 September, 2019

From

Investment markets and key developments over the past week Good news week! It certainly seemed that way for financial markets with a lot of relatively small positives – the US and China indicating that face to face trade war talks will start again next month, Hong Kong withdrawing the extradition bill, the UK parliament standing […]

continue reading

Is recession already baked in?

From

After major indices on US stock markets hit all-time highs in July, the plunge in bond yields is bringing increasingly agitated warnings about worsening growth and recession. Writing in a blog, Principal Global Investors Chief Global Economist, Dr Bob Baur said, “this agonising may simply mean that we are in the worst of the slowdown. […]

continue reading

Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia

From

Key points Australian growth is likely to remain weak over the next year. Expect further monetary & fiscal stimulus. However, while the risks have gone up, recession remains unlikely: tax cuts should help growth in the current half year; the threat from falling property prices has receded; infrastructure spending is booming; the low $A is […]

continue reading

Bigger’s been better

From

It’s never been better to be a giant company in the U.S., but will it stay that way? Executive summary The largest companies in the U.S. have seen marked improvement in their profitability on a number of measures over the last 30 or so years, while smaller companies have seen very little change. The improvement […]

continue reading