Oil in focus after drone attack on Saudi Arabia. Slowest Chinese production in 17½ years

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Weekly petrol prices: Chinese economic data Petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol rose by 3.4 cents in the past week to 143.6 cents a litre (but was down 8.6 cents a litre on the year). Chinese data (August): Retail sales rose at a 7.5 per cent […]

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Weekly market update – week ending 13 September, 2019

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week The good news continued over the last week with the US and China trading goodwill gestures on the trade war front, signs of a de-escalation of tensions with Iran and the ECB announcing a broad-based monetary easing. This saw share markets have another week of solid […]

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US/China trade headwinds will continue to be a drag

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US/China trade headwinds will continue to be a drag on global growth. In isolation, very small effect on the US, larger on China. However, the cross-over effects to manufacturing will be felt the longer it lasts. Manufacturing/industrial weakness could eventually spill over into labor trends and then the US consumer would be affected. Uncertainty will […]

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Australian house prices back from the abyss – seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

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Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been undersupplied. The combination of rate cuts, the election and a modest regulatory relaxation have helped turn property prices back up, but […]

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Confused consumers are unsure about saving

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Consumer confidence Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment index fell by 1.7 per cent to 98.2 in September. Wisest places for savings: The proportion of people that ‘don’t know’ where is the wisest place to put new savings lifted from 6.4 per cent to a record (24-year) high of 8.7 per cent. […]

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Can negative yielding bonds deliver positive returns?

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The trade war enters new prolonged phase as both sides escalate keeping macro data weak President Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs imposed on Chinese goods early in August set the tone for a material flight to quality rally across global bond markets.  China responded by adding tariffs to US goods, continuing to operate in a […]

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Insight Multi-Asset weekly update – week commencing 9 September, 2019

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Market and economic review US-China trade talks resume and constructive political developments support risk assets Risk assets performed well last week as investor sentiment was buoyed by a series of supportive trade and political developments. The main catalyst was the agreement between the US and China to meet for a new round of trade talks, […]

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Annual business trading conditions hit 4-year low; Chinese annual food inflation hits 7½-year high

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NAB Business survey; Weekly consumer sentiment; China data Business survey: The NAB business confidence index fell from +3.8 points in July to +1.4 points in August. The long-term average is +5.9 points. And the business conditions index fell from +2.6 points in July to a near 5-year low of +0.5 points in August. The long-term […]

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Weekly market update – week ending 6 September, 2019

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Good news week! It certainly seemed that way for financial markets with a lot of relatively small positives – the US and China indicating that face to face trade war talks will start again next month, Hong Kong withdrawing the extradition bill, the UK parliament standing […]

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Is recession already baked in?

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After major indices on US stock markets hit all-time highs in July, the plunge in bond yields is bringing increasingly agitated warnings about worsening growth and recession. Writing in a blog, Principal Global Investors Chief Global Economist, Dr Bob Baur said, “this agonising may simply mean that we are in the worst of the slowdown. […]

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