Weekly market update – week ending 25 January, 2019

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets pulled back a bit over the last week on the back of trade and growth worries, but the Australian share market managed a small rise led by consumer stocks and yield sensitive utilities and real estate shares. Bond yields fell, helped by a […]

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CommSec State of the States – January 2019

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Overall Results How are Australia’s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; equipment investment; unemployment; construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling commencements. Just as the Reserve Bank uses long-term averages to determine the level of ‘normal’ interest rates; we […]

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NSW & Victorian jobless rates at record lows

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Labour force Employment rose by 21,600 in December after a revised 39,000 increase in jobs in November (previously reported as a 37,100 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs fell by 3,000, but part-time jobs rose by 24,600. Economists had tipped an increase in total jobs of around 18,000. Hours worked rose by 1.3 per cent in the month […]

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Oliver’s Insights: Australian housing downturn Q&A – how bad will it get?

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Key points Australian home prices are likely to fall another 5-10% this year driven by a further 15% or so fall in Sydney & Melbourne. Tight credit, rising supply and falling price expectations are the main negatives. Uncertainty around the impact of possible tax changes is likely also impacting investor demand. The housing downturn will […]

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Skilled job vacancies hit 6 1⁄2-year highs

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Skilled job vacancies Skilled vacancies: The Internet Vacancy Index rose by 0.7 per cent in trend terms to 9-month highs in December. It was the third straight gain in the trend index. The index is 1.4 per cent higher than a year ago and 31.4 per cent above its October 2013 low. Number of vacancies: In seasonally […]

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CommSec Research: Fewer spare seats on domestic flights, consumers still positive and wine exports soar

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Domestic air travel; Consumer sentiment; Wine export Domestic air travel: In November, passenger numbers were up 0.2 per cent on a year ago while capacity fell 1.3 per cent. So the load factor on planes hit a 10-year high of 83.3 per cent Consumer confidence: The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.9 per […]

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Mixed Christmas spending

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Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Index The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI), a measure of economy-wide spending, rose by 0.4 per cent in trend terms in December. While this result is in line with the long-term average monthly growth pace, the performance was more mixed across sectors. At a sectoral level, 12 of 19 industry […]

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Weekly market update – week ending 18 January, 2019

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets continued to rise over the last week helped by talk of policy stimulus (notably in China) and optimism of a resolution to the US/China trade dispute. Bond yields rose in the US but were little changed elsewhere, commodity prices including oil rose and the […]

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Record home building with bevy of work ahead

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Consumer sentiment; Building activity Record home building: In real trend terms, a record $19.8 billion of work was done in building new homes in the September quarter. New starts: The number of dwelling starts fell by 5.7 per cent in the September quarter after falling 4.7 per cent in the June quarter and rising 11.7 […]

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2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

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Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was. Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares. Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. Introduction 2017 […]

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