Shares climb a “wall of worry” – but is it sustainable

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Key points The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions. Shares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. But if we are right, and April was the low in economic conditions, then shares... Read more continue reading

Refinancing of home loans soars to record highs

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Lending; Chinese inflation Home loans: The value of home loans fell by 4.8 per cent in April (consensus: -10 per cent) with owner-occupier loans down by 5- per cent and investor loans down by 4.2 per cent. First home buyers: The value of owner occupier first home buyer home loan commitments hit a decade high... Read more continue reading

Petrol price: The end of $1 a litre?

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Weekly petrol prices Petrol prices: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol rose by 1.9 cents last week to 110.5 cents a litre. Movements in the petrol price can affect consumer spending, and in turn, prospects for retailers. What does it all mean? Have the days of petrol... Read more continue reading

Weekly market update – week ending 5 June, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets continued to power up over the last week as developed countries saw further reopening along with more green shoots of recovery (including a much better than expected jobs report in the US) and as some countries unveiled more stimulus measures, all of which swamped... Read more continue reading

Petrol prices still low, but upside risks

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Weekly Petrol Prices; China manufacturing National average petrol prices: There is no weekly average petrol pump price data today from the Australian Institute of Petroleum due to a public holiday in the ACT. Wholesale petrol prices: Last week the national average wholesale unleaded petrol price (terminal gate or TGP) was up by 2.0 cents to... Read more continue reading

Weekly market update – week ending 29 May, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets continued to rally strongly over the past week as economic reopening in developed countries and stimulus measures continued but worries about an escalation in US/China tensions saw gains reduced late in the week. Despite taking a bit of a hit on Friday from worries... Read more continue reading

RBA Governor: Downturn less severe than first feared

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Reserve Bank Governor Testimony; APRA Chair speech Reserve Bank Governor Testimony: Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe appeared before the Australian Senate Select Committee on COVID-19. He said, “With the national health outcomes better than earlier feared, it is possible that the economic downturn will not be severe as earlier thought” The Reserve Bank Governor said... Read more continue reading

10 medium to longer-term implications from the coronavirus shock

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Key points Key medium to longer-term implications flowing from the coronavirus shock are: lower for longer interest rates; a further blow to globalisation; another leg up in the US/China cold war; bigger government and public debt; a long-term risk of higher inflation; consumer & investor caution; faster embrace of technology; bad for airlines; another test... Read more continue reading

COVID-19 risks outlook: A preliminary mapping and its implications

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Yesterday, the World Economic Forum released a new report: COVID-19 Risks Outlook: A preliminary mapping and its implications, to raise awareness and trigger timely debate as governments and businesses design post-lockdown measures. The report is informed by the views of nearly 350 senior risk professionals and identifies the main emerging concerns and fallouts. It provides an... Read more continue reading

Record declines in retail sales and job ads

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Retail trade; Skilled job vacancies; US economic forecasts Retail trade: ‘Preliminary’ retail trade fell by a record 17.9 per cent in April after rising a record 8.5 per cent increase in March. Skilled job vacancies: In trend terms, the Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) fell 16.4 per cent in April (or 18,400 job advertisements), the largest... Read more continue reading