No signs of flagging in consumer confidence

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Consumer sentiment Consumer sentiment: The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.7 per cent to 118.6 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990. The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. […]

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Insight Investment’s global economic outlook for the week ahead (week beginning 26 November 2018

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Outlook On the data front, the German IFO survey (Monday) will be closely watched, given the recent weakness in the country’s manufacturing sector. While the end of the week sees a number of European inflation releases. On Wednesday the Bank of England publishes its Financial Stability Report and the results of its annual stress test […]

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Federal Budget in best shape for a decade

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Monthly Financial Statements Budget continues to improve: In the twelve months to October 2018, the Budget deficit stood at $2,345 million (less than 0.2 per cent of GDP) and down from the $3,379 million deficit in the year to September. The rolling annual deficit is the lowest for over 9½ years. Over the same 12-month period […]

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Weekly market update – week ending 23 November, 2018

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets remained under pressure over the last week with many falling back to or below their late October lows on worries about trade, tech stocks and global growth. Despite the risk off tone bond yields were little changed but the oil price remained under pressure […]

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Insight Investment comments on the new Mexican president

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Rob Simpson, emerging market fixed income portfolio manager at Insight Investment, part of BNY Mellon IM says: “When Obrador (AMLO) was elected the next president of Mexico last summer, investors were initially willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. AMLO’s victory speech was seen as conciliatory and he further sought to allay investor […]

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Mapping markets: Insight Investment reviews the global fixed interest sector

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China the outlier in U.S. trade war negotiations “Although the US economy is expanding at a firm rate, global trade has been a significant concern for investors particularly as growth outside the US has already decelerated since then beginning of the year. The US has been able to strike new trade deals with some of […]

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Solid run of spending growth continues

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Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Index The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI), a measure of economy-wide spending, rose by 0.7 per cent in trend terms in October – the 20th month of sales growth. Spending is tracking above the 0.4 per cent average long-term monthly pace of sales growth. The annual trend growth in sales eased […]

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Insight Investment’s global economic outlook for the week ahead (week beginning 19 November 2018)

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Outlook A key focus for this week will be UK politics and whether there is sufficient support for a leadership challenge to Prime Minister May. The EC is also scheduled to respond to the Italian budget on Wednesday. If the response is too aggressive then this could see Italian bond spreads widen further as the […]

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Weekly market update – week ending 16 November, 2018

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week “Risk off” returned with a vengeance to financial markets over the last week with most share market falling and bond yields declining as last month’s worries returned, tech stocks came under renewed and the continuing plunge in the oil price weighed on energy shares. Australian shares […]

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The highs and lows of unemployment and wages

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Summary The September employment report showed that the Australian unemployment rate has fallen to 5%, its lowest level since 2011. While this is undoubtedly a strong result, two labour market indicators raise questions over whether this will translate into higher wages. 1. The participation rate The first is the decline in the unemployment rate during […]

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