Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia

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Key points Australian growth is likely to remain weak over the next year. Expect further monetary & fiscal stimulus. However, while the risks have gone up, recession remains unlikely: tax cuts should help growth in the current half year; the threat from falling property prices has receded; infrastructure spending is booming; the low $A is […]

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Bigger’s been better

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It’s never been better to be a giant company in the U.S., but will it stay that way? Executive summary The largest companies in the U.S. have seen marked improvement in their profitability on a number of measures over the last 30 or so years, while smaller companies have seen very little change. The improvement […]

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Reserve Bank: Assessing the evidence

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Reserve Bank Board meeting The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 1.00 per cent. The Reserve Bank previously cut rates in both June and July, each time by 25 basis points or a quarter of a per cent. What has changed since the last meeting? The G7 Summit and […]

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Insight Multi-Asset weekly update – week commencing 2 September, 2019

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Market and economic review  US-China trade uncertainties drive risk sentiment Risk assets performed well over the week as US-China trade tensions improved. Due to an escalation in US-China trade tensions at the end of last week investors began Monday on the back foot. However, the nervousness was quickly alleviated as President Trump, whilst attending the […]

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Weekly market update – week ending 30 August, 2019

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw share markets boosted by renewed hopes for US-China trade talks helped by a conciliatory approach from China. This saw US and Eurozone shares rise and Japanese and Chinese shares recover from earlier declines. Australian shares fell sharply early in the week but […]

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Insight weekly multi-asset update: week beginning 26 August, 2019

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Market and economic review Equity volatility falls and bond yields rise despite uninspiring global growth prints Global equities were broadly mixed last week with most major indices climbing around 1% to 2%, which the exception of the US indices, which were down -1-2%. What was particularly noticeable was the fall in volatility, after two weeks […]

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Weekly market update – week ending 23 August, 2019

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw a roller coaster ride in share markets with sharp falls after China responded to Trump’s latest tariffs by letting the Renminbi fall in value and ordering state owned enterprises to halt agricultural imports from the US and the US responded by labelling […]

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Why Quality matters for global small caps

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Investors searching for broader sources of return and diversification have been revisiting global small-cap stocks notes Eaton Vance, a global investment manager. Aidan Farrell, Director of Global Small Cap Equity, Eaton Vance Advisers International Ltd. says: “In our view, this is one of the largest, most diverse and least researched segments of the equity market, offering […]

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Positive consumer finances; Watchful RBA

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Weekly consumer sentiment; Reserve Bank Board minutes Consumer confidence: The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 2.3 per cent to 112.8 points. Consumer sentiment is now below the average of 114.5 points held since 2014 and the longer term average of 113.1 points since 1990. Reserve Bank: Minutes of the August 6 Reserve […]

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Forget the barometer

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We don’t need an inverted yield curve to tell us a global manufacturing downturn may be underway. The business networks were flashing red all day last Wednesday as the spread between the U.S. Treasury 2- and 10-year yields turned negative for the first time since 2007. We’ve written a lot about why we think the […]

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