Headlines still worried, momentum a little better

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Principal Global Investors has released its Economic Insights for the month of September. Writing in the note to investors, Chief Global Economist, Dr Bob Baur, said that the world economic slowdown refuses to fade, however, economic momentum feels better. The tug-of-war “For some months, the world economy has seemed at a crossroads. With industrial activity stagnating, confidence downcast, […]

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Is recession already baked in?

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After major indices on US stock markets hit all-time highs in July, the plunge in bond yields is bringing increasingly agitated warnings about worsening growth and recession. Writing in a blog, Principal Global Investors Chief Global Economist, Dr Bob Baur said, “this agonising may simply mean that we are in the worst of the slowdown. […]

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Good financial returns may be hard to find

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“Intensified trade tensions and disappointment with interest rate cuts by the Fed could provoke a relapse in equity markets.” That’s the view of Principal Global Investors Chief Global Economist, Dr Bob Baur. Writing in his July monthly economic notes, Dr Baur argued that even if world growth picks up as expected, good financial returns might […]

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Is the end in sight for the world slowdown?

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Interest rates: near a low in long-bond yields  “The eight-month plunge in 10-year U.S. treasury bond yields is likely over. Yields will slowly work higher into year-end. At some point, rising interest rates will become a problem for stock and credit markets, likely late next year or in 2021.  “For 35 years, yields on 10-year U.S. […]

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US chasing Australia on economic expansion, says Principal

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Principal’s Chief Global Economist, Dr Bob Baur, looks at how global markets fared in March. World economic outlook: green shoots “Stock markets plunged in December as evidence began to accumulate that a recession might be around the corner. Growth in China slowed significantly throughout 2018 and the fourth quarter rebounds in Europe and Japan were […]

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Lowdown on the global growth slowdown from Principal Global Investors

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Market outlook: Is the monster rally over? “Last month, I suggested the odds favored another market downdraft, something approaching December’s lows. Didn’t happen; stocks kept roaring higher. The S&P 500 Index soared 6.6% in December, 7.9% in January, and 3.0% in February, for a total 18.4% compound gain since Christmas. That’s an amazing run. Of […]

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No delight for Turkish Lira with Trump’s sanctions and tariff threats

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Principal Global Investors’ Chief Global Economist, Bob Baur, takes a look at how Trump’s sanctions and a threat of tariffs on Turkish exports to the US are propelling the downdraft 17 August 2018 Trade, Turkey, Tariffs, Trump and turmoil “The currency had already been weakening this year, along with emerging economies in general, on account […]

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When will the next recession begin?

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A 2020 US recession “According to the June 11 business section of the USA Today, many experts say in 2020 for the United States. If it happens, it would be the first time such a forecast came true; recall that economists in general have predicted zero of the last seven recessions. The stock market is no […]

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Making China great again 

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Principal Global Investors’ Chief Global Economist, Bob Baur, Ph.D., weighs in on the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. President Xi Jinping’s opening session speech “In his three-and-a-half-hour, 32,000-word speech to about 2,300 attendees at the opening session of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, President Xi called upon China […]

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Global expansion may have reached a self-sustaining velocity

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Clear signs that global expansion is on track The global economic recovery that began in early 2016 has reached a self-sustaining velocity. Momentum is likely peaking, but solid growth should persist well into 2018.  The evidence pointing to this is compelling, strong industrial production, robust growth, and improved capital spending. The case is further strengthened […]

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