Is the RBA’s narrow path a tightrope, and is the Fed one and done?

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The CPI and the Fed: more like one and done rather than none and done Despite a stubborn failure for the data to conform, the bond markets have had a

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14 Apr 2023

Monthly CPI indicator better than expected…but RBA should raise rates again in April

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Wednesday’s better than expected monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator has raised the prospect that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may “pause” increasing the policy rate when it meets

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31 Mar 2023

US Fed’s FOMC hikes 50bps, maintaining a moderately “hawkish” disposition, and the Bank of England to hit 25bps

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In what looks to have been a finely balanced decision, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) opted to increase the policy rate target by 25 basis

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24 Mar 2023

Is the (recession) wolf finally at the door for the Federal Reserve, and will Lowe’s path to become narrower?

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The Fed. Is the (recession) wolf finally at the door? For the last couple of years bond markets looked to have been ‘crying wolf” on recession prospects. Is SVB a

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16 Mar 2023

Markets juggle the ‘hot potato’ of policy guidance as central banks search for ‘wiggle room’

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Markets juggle the ‘hot potato’ of policy guidance as central banks search for ‘wiggle room’ One of the earlier hits of renowned Australian kids band, the Wiggles, involved juggling a

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10 Mar 2023

Peak inflation: a plateau or a turning point? That is the question for the RBA

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly lift the policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.60 per cent when it meets on 7 March. The RBA

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06 Mar 2023

The Fed remains primarily focussed on inflation containment – 2023 will be a year of slow growth

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US Federal Reserve (the Fed) FOMC minutes Last night’s release of the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) ‎Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes indicate that the Fed remains primarily

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24 Feb 2023

Lowe’s woe

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2022 may have been an annus horribilis for RBA Governor, Philip Lowe. And so far 2023 doesn’t seem to be much better. In the last week he has been pilloried

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17 Feb 2023

Promising signs for markets but inflation still the big unknown

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Local and global equity markets – in particular Chinese and Asian equities – are positioned well for 2023, but inflation is the joker in the pack for investors, according to

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25 Jan 2023

Wages growth to challenge the “Australian exceptionalism” narrative and FOMC meets next week

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Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises 25 basis points as expected. Wages growth to challenge the “Australian exceptionalism” narrative. Upside risk to market pricing of the RBA policy rate. As

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09 Dec 2022