Peak inflation: a plateau or a turning point? That is the question for the RBA

From

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly lift the policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.60 per cent when it meets on 7 March. The RBA

continue reading
06 Mar 2023

The Fed remains primarily focussed on inflation containment – 2023 will be a year of slow growth

From

US Federal Reserve (the Fed) FOMC minutes Last night’s release of the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) ‎Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes indicate that the Fed remains primarily

continue reading
24 Feb 2023

Lowe’s woe

From

2022 may have been an annus horribilis for RBA Governor, Philip Lowe. And so far 2023 doesn’t seem to be much better. In the last week he has been pilloried

continue reading
17 Feb 2023

Promising signs for markets but inflation still the big unknown

From

Local and global equity markets – in particular Chinese and Asian equities – are positioned well for 2023, but inflation is the joker in the pack for investors, according to

continue reading
25 Jan 2023

Wages growth to challenge the “Australian exceptionalism” narrative and FOMC meets next week

From

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises 25 basis points as expected. Wages growth to challenge the “Australian exceptionalism” narrative. Upside risk to market pricing of the RBA policy rate. As

continue reading
09 Dec 2022

Monetary policy, wages and Australian economic “exceptionalism”

From

One has to feel a little bit of sympathy for RBA Governor Philip Lowe. Some straightforward and economically incontestable commentary regarding wage growth and inflation and the desirability of linking

continue reading
28 Nov 2022

Fed FOMC minutes: smaller steps to a higher peak; Fed and markets aligne

From

Wednesday night’s release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) FOMC meeting minutes indicate that the Fed and financial markets are close to alignment on their expectations for peak policy rate of

continue reading
25 Nov 2022

A tale of two central banks and Australian labour force data expected to show continued tight labour market conditions

From

A tale of two central banks The Federal Reserve (Fed) Last week’s release of the US October consumer price index (CPI) and this week’s release of the US October producer

continue reading
18 Nov 2022

Outsize September quarter CPI poses some ‘awkward optics’ for the RBA

From

As has occurred throughout the developed country complex, Australia’s September quarter consumer price index (CPI) surprised on the upside. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes from the October meeting note that

continue reading
31 Oct 2022

RBA judgement that policy rate increments are “finely balanced” and UK records a double digit 40 year-high in inflation

From

Tuesday’s release of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes from the October meeting note that the decision between moving the policy rate by 25 basis points versus 50 basis

continue reading
21 Oct 2022