Inflation and the “new” Fed: livin’ under Kevin

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The financial market commentariat would have us believe that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s Congressional testimony was “hawkish”. Fair enough! Despite a benign June consumer price index (CPI) report and last night’s benign producer price

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RBA minutes: stayin’ live

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I’m not sure that the news flow of the last week or so has managed to advance whatever one may have been thinking about the decision of the Reserve Bank

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The Fed: “hawkish”…sort of…

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As was pretty much expected, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose to keep the policy (federal funds) rate target unchanged at 3.5 – 3.75 per cent. That

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The RBA: ‘pause and reflect’ despite a particular inflation proclivity, Fed and other central banks

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The RBA: ‘pause and reflect’ despite a particular inflation proclivity I had canvassed the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might ‘pause and reflect’ at the last RBA

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Are markets ‘complacent’?

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The onset of the Iranian crisis has unleashed a litany of dire prognostications surrounding the likely course of the price of financial assets. Yet US equity markets are close to

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Is an increase in oil prices inflationary or disinflationary?

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The sharp increase in the price of oil in the wake of the Iran conflict has ushered in a plethora of central bank warnings around the inflationary consequences of such

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US CPI and the Fed: the door is ever so slightly ajar…but the Fed won’t walk through in March

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The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a somewhat different decision than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In the absence of the sharp rise in oil prices, there would be an

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A “patient” RBA and January CPI: March unlikely but May “live”

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For those looking for some mortgage relief, yesterday’s release of the January consumer price index (CPI) didn’t make for pleasant reading. The best thing that might be said about yesterday’s

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No AI jobs apocalypse but Fed rate cuts not dead yet

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Last night’s January jobs report appears on the surface to put further Fed policy rate reductions in indefinite abeyance. In the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement back in

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A stitch in time for the RBA

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As late as 21 January, markets had rated the probability of an upward adjustment to the policy rate at next week’s RBA Monetary Policy Board meeting at around 25 per

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