The Fed: “transitory” turbulence?

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As the Trump Administration assumed office, markets not only had priced ‘goldilocks’ but looked to be embracing a euphoric scenario. Inflation was in retreat; the Fed was cutting rates; bond

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US CPI: a small mercy but Papa Bear looms

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The big fear leading into last night’s US February CPI release was that it might reinforce the notion that the US is headed for a version of ‘stagflation-lite’ where inflation

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The Fed: extended sabbatical or a short break

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As was pretty much universally expected the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the policy rate target range unchanged at 4.25-4.50 per cent when it met overnight. The Fed

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Will 2025 be the year of the bull market?

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Global markets are showing signs of positive sentiment heading into 2025 but geopolitical uncertainty and the impact of the incoming Trump administration are the wild cards, according to GSFM and its

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US CPI is better but still “sticky” and December labour force data could be pivotal for the RBA

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US CPI: better but still “sticky”. The Fed policy rate: ditto. Where to for US bond yields? The robust December payrolls report was something of a death knell for a

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The Fed: diluting the punchbowl?

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Former Federal Reserve Chair William McChesney Martin was the longest serving Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, serving almost 19 years until January 1970. He is famous for his description of the

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Australian GDP and the RBA: the February door is ajar

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In some sense the September quarter national accounts don’t reveal much that wasn’t already known. Private demand is weak, but apparent supply constraints (exemplified by ongoing languishing productivity) are a

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Any US tariff increases won’t delay RBA easing

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Trump, tariffs and the RBA There has been some commentary that a Trump 2.0 could delay any RBA easing because of its potential inflationary impact. I struggle with the notion

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The US election, the US budget deficit, inflation, bond yields, the USD, the Fed, equities, gold and crypto – so much to think about!

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Beware the knee-jerk?? Bond yields have spiked higher on the prospect of a Trump victory in the US Presidential election and the US dollar (USD) has surged. Despite higher bond

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Bank of Canada presses the accelerator on rate reductions… “to stick the landing”

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In a move that markets had certainly contemplated, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) overnight to take the policy rate to 3.75 per

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