US inflation: of known and unknown unknowns (the ghost of Donald Rumsfeld) 

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The financial commentariat seem unsure on US inflation. I think that is understandable. For months now markets have braced for an acceleration of inflation as a consequence of President Trump’s

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RBA: leaning to a July cut but that productivity “wart”?

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The March quarter gross domestic product (GDP) release certainly confirmed that the Australian economy remains mired in the doldrums. GDP growth remains tepid, at best, at just 0.2 per cent

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RBA can act “decisively” to mitigate a deteriorating international environment and beware the bond vigilantes!

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As was largely anticipated, at the conclusion of this week’s Board meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced a cut in the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps),

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RBA to cut by 25 bps. Retain optionality for the future (even if there are more cuts to come)

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The March quarter consumer price index (CPI) was a good enough result for a 25 basis point (bp) policy rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on

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The Fed stands firm; remains “patient”

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As was largely anticipated the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave the policy rate target unchanged at 4.25-4.50 per cent when it met overnight. In its statement

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RBA: opting out of the circular firing squad

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In my view the upending of the global trade system occasioned by the Trump Administration’s tariff agenda will more likely than not see a global recession by year-end. The backdown

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RBA April preview: keep calm and carry on

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Coming into next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meeting, it is extremely difficult to envisage anything other than a decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at its

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The Fed: “transitory” turbulence?

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As the Trump Administration assumed office, markets not only had priced ‘goldilocks’ but looked to be embracing a euphoric scenario. Inflation was in retreat; the Fed was cutting rates; bond

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US CPI: a small mercy but Papa Bear looms

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The big fear leading into last night’s US February CPI release was that it might reinforce the notion that the US is headed for a version of ‘stagflation-lite’ where inflation

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The Fed: extended sabbatical or a short break

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As was pretty much universally expected the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the policy rate target range unchanged at 4.25-4.50 per cent when it met overnight. The Fed

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