The strength of the USD

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USD: the “cleanest dirty shirt”. It wasn’t that long ago that “dollar debasement” was flavour of the month. An adversarial stance on trade and geopolitics was thought to lead to

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Is a 5 per cent US 10-year bond yield the new normal?

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The US 10-year bond yield is above 5 per cent. Apart from a fleeting period (less than a day) in October 2023, the last time that US 10-year yields were

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Australian monthly CPI inflation

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Yesterday’s Australian monthly CPI inflation report makes the September RBA meeting “live”. In my assessment the Board should increase the policy rate at that meeting. I expect it will. The

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US inflation: nothing for the worry Warshs  

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Since the conclusion of the last Fed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US financial market commentariat have spent some time highlighting Fed Chair Warsh’s communication shortcomings. It appears

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Inflation and the “new” Fed: livin’ under Kevin

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The financial market commentariat would have us believe that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s Congressional testimony was “hawkish”. Fair enough! Despite a benign June consumer price index (CPI) report and last night’s benign producer price

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RBA minutes: stayin’ live

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I’m not sure that the news flow of the last week or so has managed to advance whatever one may have been thinking about the decision of the Reserve Bank

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The Fed: “hawkish”…sort of…

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As was pretty much expected, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose to keep the policy (federal funds) rate target unchanged at 3.5 – 3.75 per cent. That

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The RBA: ‘pause and reflect’ despite a particular inflation proclivity, Fed and other central banks

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The RBA: ‘pause and reflect’ despite a particular inflation proclivity I had canvassed the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might ‘pause and reflect’ at the last RBA

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Are markets ‘complacent’?

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The onset of the Iranian crisis has unleashed a litany of dire prognostications surrounding the likely course of the price of financial assets. Yet US equity markets are close to

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Is an increase in oil prices inflationary or disinflationary?

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The sharp increase in the price of oil in the wake of the Iran conflict has ushered in a plethora of central bank warnings around the inflationary consequences of such

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