All Articles tagged with 'Stephen Miller'

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The Fed and March US non-farm payrolls report and the ECB’s end to the tightening cycle

From GSFM

“Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say “on the one hand…, but then on the other…” Harry Truman (US President 1945-53) Where is the Fed coming into

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08 Apr 2024

On the other hand

From GSFM

“Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say ‘on the one hand…’, then ‘but on the other…” – Harry Truman (US President 1945-52) Despite a plethora of central bank

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25 Mar 2024

RBA: the narrow path resembles a tightrope; a “verbal pivot” in the offing? The Fed: Déjà vu all over again?!

From GSFM

The Fed: Déjà vu all over again?! Yogi Berra was a US baseball coach renowned for his mangling of expression. He is most famous for coining the phrase “déjà vu

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19 Mar 2024

Central Banks: Are we there yet?

From GSFM

The week just passed was meant to be one where markets obtained a clearer insight into when central banks, including the Federal Reserve (the Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB)

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11 Mar 2024

Soft landing still a central case…but a lot can go wrong. (Or will the Bears catch “goldilocks”?)

From GSFM

RBA: monetary policy bias swinging to neutral, but still some distance to any imperative for a policy rate cut Yesterday’s release of the January Monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator

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01 Mar 2024

US January consumer price index. Not there yet. Not even close?

From GSFM

January’s US consumer price index (CPI) is a reminder that the challenges around the “last mile” in returning inflation to target are daunting. I suspect that the Federal Reserve (Fed)

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15 Feb 2024

Phlegmatic Fed

From GSFM

As was widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) opted to eschew any adjustment in the policy rate at the conclusion of its meeting on

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02 Feb 2024

Pamplona in the bond market as it anticipates aggressive central bank policy rate reductions

From GSFM

Running with the bulls can be exhilarating and, in an investment sense, frequently rewarding. The rally in bond markets from late October into year-end provided that exhilaration and reward for

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19 Jan 2024

Pamplona in the markets and the European Central Bank and Bank of England both on hold

From GSFM

Fed: Pamplona in the markets! As was widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) opted to eschew any adjustment in the policy rate at the

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15 Dec 2023

RBA and September quarter national accounts: historical curiosum or troubling portent?

From GSFM

Wednesday’s September quarter national accounts release did not make for a pleasing read. Growth was slow (probably slower than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) forecast) but inflation remains high,

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08 Dec 2023

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CPD: Growth holds, risks widen
Economic outlook: Structural forces, cyclical implications Longer-term secular forces are driving the six- to 12-month cyclical outlook. Our June 2026 Secular Outlook, “Rupture and Resilience[1],” explored the fraying of traditional [...]
CPD: Intergenerational wealth – When the responsibility transfers before the money
Picture this: an Enduring Power of Attorney (EPOA) has sat in a filing cabinet for years. Then a sudden health event means an adult daughter is called on to act [...]
CPD: Why market structure rewards active management in local currency EMD
Key takeaways A large, diverse and fast-growing opportunity set: local currency EMD spans economies at very different points in the cycle, offering income, growth and genuine diversification. Structure, not just [...]
CPD: A practical system for building client confidence – Value of Advice (Part 1)
Introduction As the advice profession continues to evolve, so too do client expectations and perceptions of the value of advice. Perhaps nothing sums up this shift as perfectly as this [...]
CPD: When a little knowledge is dangerous – countering the financial ‘guidance’ your clients are getting from AI
Move over, Google The expression “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing” seems particularly appropriate to financial decisions, where the amounts at stake and the inherent complexity make the risk [...]