Pamplona in the bond market as it anticipates aggressive central bank policy rate reductions

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Running with the bulls can be exhilarating and, in an investment sense, frequently rewarding. The rally in bond markets from late October into year-end provided that exhilaration and reward for

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Pamplona in the markets and the European Central Bank and Bank of England both on hold

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Fed: Pamplona in the markets! As was widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) opted to eschew any adjustment in the policy rate at the

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RBA and September quarter national accounts: historical curiosum or troubling portent?

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Wednesday’s September quarter national accounts release did not make for a pleasing read. Growth was slow (probably slower than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) forecast) but inflation remains high,

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RBA minutes, Bullock commentary and bond markets waiting for policy rate cuts like waiting for Godot

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RBA minutes, Bullock commentary: a December policy rate hike looks unlikely. Governor’s communication well framed Yesterday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meeting minutes from the 7 November  Board meeting

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US October consumer price index: risk of policy rate hike recedes…but are markets getting ahead of themselves in pricing multiple easing’s?

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A slightly better than expected core consumer price index (CPI) inflation result for October suggests that the Fed tightening cycle is likely in abeyance – probably indefinitely. The Federal Reserve (Fed)

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Where to for US bond yields?

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The last few months have been characterised by high levels of volatility in the US bond market. Longer tenor bond yields have risen sharply this year with the 10-year yield

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RBA: a view from the hawk’s nest

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At the time of the release of the September quarter consumer price index (CPI), I suggested that an annual increase of 5.2 per cent in the annual trimmed-mean (TM) inflation

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September quarter consumer price index: the RBA to reveal hawk talons

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An annual increase of 5.2 per cent in the annual trimmed-mean (TM) inflation rate makes a policy rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday, 7 November

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RBA: exercising the hawk’s talons! 

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In refreshing contrast to her predecessors and peers, new Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, Michele Bullock, has an endearingly plain-spoken and direct approach.  That was on display this week.

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“Sticky” services inflation suggests a policy rate hike remains on the Fed agenda and NAB Monthly Business Survey leaves open the prospect of further rate hikes

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“Sticky” services inflation, a still elevated core inflation result for September and a slightly higher than anticipated headline number means that a further increase in the policy rate remains on

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